Lumber prices and tariffs

[Loo.wii]

Current Canada tariffs on USA goods:
Milk: 270%
Cheese: 245%
Butter: 298%
Chicken: 238%
Sausages: 69.9%
Barley seed: 57.8%
Bovine/meat: 26.5%
Cars: 25%
HVAC: 45%
Vacuums: 35%
Cable boxes: 35%
TVs: 45%
Steel: 25%
Aluminum: 45%
Copper: 48%

Who is screwing who?

source?

 

[Loo.wii]

Yes, several companies in the United States make televisions, including Vizio, Hisense, and Sharp

proof ?
According to a quick google
Vizio owned by Walmart is not manufactured in the us though their designs may come out of California.

 

[ebrownw2]

I’m no longer in the lumber business but was for my entire working life. Sold my lumberyards and retired 3 years ago. Did 100% of the building materials purchasing and retail pricing myself. So I’m little out of the loop, but know that this is really nothing new. We’ve had 20% tarrifs on Canadian lumber for long periods of time before. The wildfires probably haven’t done any more damage than a bad tornado year in the south. Housing starts affect lumber prices much more than all the wars, natural disasters, and political stunts combined. That should be your barometer to predict future pricing. Also, all of the lumber used in your house will make up MAYBE 10% of the total cost of the home. So even if lumber doubles in price, it’s not that big of an overall change in the total cost of the home. Having said all of that, building materials are generally the cheapest in the winter (because that’s when housing starts are the lowest). More years than not the market would have me filling my sheds this time of the year to cover my spring needs.

So:
1: Chill
2: If your lumberyard will let you buy it and not take delivery until you need it, probably yes.
3: If you have a place to store it and have a truck and a trailer and a forklift to move it to the job site when needed, maybe yes. But only if you know for certain it’s items you will use 100% of. Lumber has a shelf life, especially when stored improperly.

 

[Loo.wii]

I’m no longer in the lumber business was for my entire working life. Sold my lumberyards and retired 3 years ago. Did 100% of the building materials purchasing and retail pricing myself. So a little out of the loop but know that this is really nothing new. We’ve had 20% tarrifs on Canadian lumber for long periods of time before. The wildfires probably haven’t done any more damage than a bad tornado year in the south. Housing starts affect lumber prices much more than all the wars, natural disasters, and political stunts combined. That should be your barometer to predict future pricing. Also, all of the lumber used in your house will make up MAYBE 10% of the total cost of the home. So even if lumber doubles in price, it’s not that big of an overall change in the total cost of the home. Having said all of that, building materials are generally the cheapest in the winter (because that’s when housing starts are the lowest). More years than not the market would have me filling my sheds this time of the year to cover my spring needs.

So:
1: chill
2: if your lumberyard will let you buy it and not take delivery until you need it, probably yes.
3: if you have a place to store it and have a truck and a trailer and a forklift to move it to the job site when needed, maybe yes but only if you know for certain it’s items you will use 100% of. Lumber has a shelf life, especially when stored improperly.

Do you think we will ever move away from building homes out of wood ?

In your experience, if the price of lumber doubles how much would the prices of complete homes increase to the consumer?

 

[IDVortex]

Do you think we will ever move away from building homes out of wood ?

In your experience, if the price of lumber doubles how much would the prices of complete homes increase to the consumer?

No, not a chance until the US energy code is changed drastically. The ease, cost, and renewable of lumber won't go away.

And even if the energy code changed drastically, there's better areas in a home that would probably be dictated by that. I don't see insurance companies making it become a change either due to tornados or fires.

The other thing that'll keep wood always being used is the cost. Id easily say 75% of home buyers can't afford to build a icf home, or a equivalent of energy efficiency home. Plus, most other products besides wood have a terrible carbon footprint print.

 

[NDGuy]

 

[IDVortex]

Honestly, I hope the tariffs on lumber will hopefully open up the US lumber market, and start harvesting more lumber in the US. Wishful thinking.

 

[ebrownw2]

The potential tightening of the labor supply is much more concerning for the future of affordable housing than tariffs on lumber.

 

[Forestryguy]

Going to need some gov funding to get all the lumber mills that have been shut down back going. Some may decide not to also. In 4 years policies could do a 180 and the investment to restart will be wasted. Although where fuel is headed, trucking is not readable for long distances.

 

[TandKHunting]

The 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico won't last long. It's just a temporary power move to bring a halt to illegal immigration and fentanyl being brought into the country. Canada and Mexico both know tariffs will be passed off to the consumer, which lowers consumption due to high prices. Remember, this is a temporary hardship in the states, but certainly not permanent. Canada's lumbar and oil industry is massive revenue for their country, which relies heavily on the United States for both, while Mexico's agricultural industry relies heavily on the United States. With that said, Trump is basically forcing Canada and Mexico to take a tougher stance on border security or face economic harm from lower consumption/demand. Trump has a full house, pushed his entire stack in, and is waiting to see if Mexico and Canada call him. They will fold, agree to tougher border security terms, tariffs will decrease or be eliminated, and all will be well.

I could be wrong in all of this, but that's what I see. After all, one of the main issues that got him elected was border security, illegal immigration, and fentanyl killing hundreds of thousands of Americans every year.

 

[william schmaltz]

Some may decide not to also. In 4 years policies could do a 180 and the investment to restart will be wasted.

Bingo. If 30+ House seats go blue in two years, which is very likely, the writing is on the wall for 2028. No oil or lumber company in their right mind would start mobilizing new areas.

People tend to forget that the president is voted in by the 40% of the country that lives in the middle. Those people voted red in 2024 for RFK, lower groceries, and leaving our kids alone. Everyone loves to tout the “he’s doing what he was voted in to do”. The reality is, 40% of the people voting for him were voting on surface issues and are now getting more than they wanted. If you go too far from the middle voters, everything he’s done so far which has been by a pen and a paper will be erased completely in 4 years with a different colored pen. Biden made this mistake by going way too far left. He was given a rebounding economy on a silver platter in 2020, but couldn’t ignore the crazies. Neither party seems capable of learning this lesson.

 

[Snowwolfe]

proof ?
According to a quick google
Vizio owned by Walmart is not manufactured in the us though their designs may come out of California.

No proof. I googled it once and was told 3 companies still made them here. Further research revealed no truth to it

 

[Szwampdonkey]

proof ?
According to a quick google
Vizio owned by Walmart is not manufactured in the us though their designs may come out of California.

TVs that are made in the USA​

• Silo Digital
• Philips Magnavox TV
• SunBrite TV
• Element Electronics
• Seura TV
• Sceptre TV

I was unaware so looked it up and there ya go. TVs made in the US.

Thankfully Trump is in now and can start the process of getting these other countries to do their part. The illegal immigration and illicit drugs coming across our borders is out of control.

The US can increase wood and oil production at home so double bonus. If i was already well into building a house now i’d buy right now. If i could wait i’d wait a couple years until these things work themselves out and prices come down in the US.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

View attachment 833234

Shouldn’t you have Trudeau in this pic seeing as that what he is currently getting?

 

[Fireflyfishing]

One of the reasons the national forest were set aside was for timber reserves for the country. Many of our national forest are 400-600% above recommended mature tree capacity. This also contributes to wildfire destruction. Select cut logging seems to kill 2 birds with one stone. Although I Imagine it's not that simple.

Don’t worry NEPA will make sure we can’t use it .

 

[aer21]

The potential tightening of the labor supply is much more concerning for the future of affordable housing than tariffs on lumber.

No one is actually worried about affordable housing. What I mean is, politicians talk affordable housing this, affordable housing that but they don’t actually want it. They want whatever is the latest flavor of the month and whatever lines their own pockets. They make laws, energy code, to make the houses tighter, more insulated, more efficient and then require us to build them that way. But all that costs more. With houses already expensive, a few years ago they had a new code cycle implemented. It was during Covid. The changes we had to make cost an additional 10k-20k per house to comply. Now we are in another code cycle starting this year and they require continuous exterior insulation. This is going to cost approximately an additional 10k. And all this in mind, there was nothing wrong with the houses prior to all the new code requirements, they were built a lot tighter and more efficient than in the past.

 

[ColoradoV]

Anyone? Anyone?

 

[Pacific_Fork]

All I know, and I don’t know anything about the why, is that the mill in my town has has logs stacked up to the heavens for the past 6 months. Enough to build a country it seems.

 

[loganwayne]

most sheet goods (Osb, plywood) are us products made with chip pine from the south. dimensional lumber is a product of Canada. at least it is here where i build

 

[coleman]

Current Canada tariffs on USA goods:
Milk: 270%
Cheese: 245%
Butter: 298%
Chicken: 238%
Sausages: 69.9%
Barley seed: 57.8%
Bovine/meat: 26.5%
Cars: 25%
HVAC: 45%
Vacuums: 35%
Cable boxes: 35%
TVs: 45%
Steel: 25%
Aluminum: 45%
Copper: 48%

Who is screwing who?

I’d love to see the source too. US population 330 million, Canada population 40 million. Take the trade numbers if you can wade through the BS and find the correct amount. Best guess something like Can 482 billion US441 billion and Do the math,…. Who spends more per person on trade from the other country? Your oil refineries are not set up to deal with the lighter crude mostly found in the US thus they buy heavy crude and turn a massive profit. Our government has f@#ked us and is absolutely terrible but I’m having a hard time seeing how you are getting screwed in trade. This is not about getting screwed in trade but a few different things.