My 25 Creed new pressured out around 2675 with 39.5-40gr H4350 and a 133EH in new Peterson brass. Tikka action, PBB .75" taperless, ordered as a 20" but they informed me the Gov goes by total OA length, so it was actually more like an 18.5" of action forward barrel. I'd say depending on variables like action, brass, potential barrel speed up, etc., you might be a bit generous or spot on with your assumptions.
*ETA* Just remembered my chamber was cut with the 131BJ reamer and was not optimal for the 133EH, it was seated pretty deep @ .010" off lands. If a guy had his properly throated to jump, it might give some buffer for the pressure curve and a bit more velocity.