I will preface by saying that I am a resident, so I may be a little bias. That being said, I have multiple non-resident buddies that consistently get (or have gotten) non-resident tags in the zones that they wanted, but it took some ridiculous acrobatics to get them year in and year out (one year not getting a tag until after the season had opened).
I think the new system will be a far better way of getting more opportunity out there for people everywhere to get tags that really want them and will weed out the tire kickers that get tags just to get them and barely hunt the tag they "took" from someone who "really wanted it." I also think with the added barrier to entry of having to buy a license, you'll see a lot less of those same tire kickers bogging down the system and muddying the waters. Historically Idaho had always been a fall back option, that obviously changed back in (2019?) when the previous changes to allocation and selection were implemented, then it became kind of a S show...
I still think that there will be a relatively high demand on tags however and knowing the logistics of how this draw is going to work (with everyone's 1st choice getting a first look before moving to 2nd, 3rd, ect.); if I were applying and just wanted to hunt in Idaho without a specific zone in mind, I would take hard consideration in making my first choice something I would be happy with and is realistic to draw, as its entirely likely that most desirable zones won't be available in the subsequent rounds.
On the flip side of that, if you're hard up to get a SPECIFIC zone then by all means make that your 1st choice, just be okay with the likelihood that getting that tag consistently likely won't be the reality. In that case I would add that I'd probably make my desired zone my 1st choice and omit my remaining choices hoping for returned tags in my zone for the second draw; as per IDFG, if you draw in the first draw, you WILL NOT be eligible to apply in the second draw regardless of whether you pick up your tag or not.
