Idaho elk: the NR draw

[BiG_Sea]

Since the December circus (also known as the ID non-resident tag sale, RIP) wasn’t giving the IDFG good info on unit demand, there doesn’t seem to be any in the pamphlet explaining this year’s new draw format. That zone I’m eyeing that has 5 NR tags available could be the least desired zone in the state, likely to be sold in the second draw or leftover sales. Or it could be the highest demand tag and selecting it as my first choice is the same odds as not entering (but $204 cheaper).

My current approach is to just hope it works out, throw in for my top five dream zones in order and plan on actually taking a bird hunting trip. But, I’m not getting younger and wondering if I should try for something more likely as my first or second choice - you never know when your last draw will be.

How everyone is dealing with this? Are you just selecting your dream zone as first choice and hoping your second (or 3rd, 4th, 5th) choice is magically available when that turn comes around? (Note: I’m not surveying your zone choices, just want to hear your thoughts)

Also, has anyone seen any public info on which tags sold out first in prior circuses? (Note: I am looking for zone choices here, but only if the info is public!)

 

[BuckSmasher]

Since the December circus (also known as the ID non-resident tag sale, RIP) wasn’t giving the IDFG good info on unit demand, there doesn’t seem to be any in the pamphlet explaining this year’s new draw format. That zone I’m eyeing that has 5 NR tags available could be the least desired zone in the state, likely to be sold in the second draw or leftover sales. Or it could be the highest demand tag and selecting it as my first choice is the same odds as not entering (but $204 cheaper).

My current approach is to just hope it works out, throw in for my top five dream zones in order and plan on actually taking a bird hunting trip. But, I’m not getting younger and wondering if I should try for something more likely as my first or second choice - you never know when your last draw will be.

How everyone is dealing with this? Are you just selecting your dream zone as first choice and hoping your second (or 3rd, 4th, 5th) choice is magically available when that turn comes around? (Note: I’m not surveying your zone choices, just want to hear your thoughts)

Also, has anyone seen any public info on which tags sold out first in prior circuses? (Note: I am looking for zone choices here, but only if the info is public!)

Diamond Creek draw odds will be very, very low is my WAG.

 

[Scrappy]

I can't help with any info OP. I'm definitely here for someone to give me their honey hole info

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Diamond Creek draw odds will be very, very low is my WAG.

And sawtooth will be almost as low


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[elkocd]

I know 2 years ago I went to ID and bought 2 Diamond creek tags for my son and I at a store. I was 3rd in line. We got the last couple and they were gone in 15 mins. I know because I tried to get my friend one and they were gone. I need to figure out something else to try and get him, but without any data it will be tough to choose.

 

[idelkslayer]

I think it depends on how badly you want to hunt elk in Idaho. You can shoot for the moon or go with a safe bet. High demand zones will be tough but there is no way to know what the odds will be. This first year will be unpredictable. Next year will be more or less a reaction to to the first and I think there will be some big shifts in demand as applicants try to adjust. It might take 3 years or more for the odds to settle into anything predictable.

 

[np307]

After hearing the draw mechanics explained, I dont think putting a good unit for 3rd, 4th, or 5th choice will be much help. They do all 1st choices, then all 2nd choices, etc.

 

[SouthernCharm]

U want to hunt or dream hunt? If you want to hunt you make your choices ranked accordingly to availability (amount of tags). Dream hunt is just that, however statically speaking, starting 2nd round, there is a “special area hunts” left. They all got taken in then1st round. In the draw, u may be the number 1, so why not dream and rank 2-5 as a hunt. My 2 bit piece. Shoot straight. Now, haven’t heard the details, but hoping that if my number 1,2, or 3 is not available to me once it comes to me on then1st round then my number 4 is then my 1st choice and not skip me since first choice is gone.

 

[elkocd]

U want to hunt or dream hunt? If you want to hunt you make your choices ranked accordingly to availability (amount of tags). Dream hunt is just that, however statically speaking, starting 2nd round, there is a “special area hunts” left. They all got taken in then1st round. In the draw, u may be the number 1, so why not dream and rank 2-5 as a hunt. My 2 bit piece. Shoot straight. Now, haven’t heard the details, but hoping that if my number 1,2, or 3 is not available to me once it comes to me on then1st round then my number 4 is then my 1st choice and not skip me since first choice is gone.

Everyones 1st choice is done before they move to the 2nd choice. Meaning your 2nd choice does not even get looked at until everyones 1st has been gone thru. So there likely will not be many if any elk tags available for a 2nd choice.

 

[IdahoBeav]

Since the December circus (also known as the ID non-resident tag sale, RIP) wasn’t giving the IDFG good info on unit demand, there doesn’t seem to be any in the pamphlet explaining this year’s new draw format. That zone I’m eyeing that has 5 NR tags available could be the least desired zone in the state, likely to be sold in the second draw or leftover sales. Or it could be the highest demand tag and selecting it as my first choice is the same odds as not entering (but $204 cheaper).

The tag you're eying sold out very quickly in recent years. It's a popular hunt. It sells out quickly in the resident sale as well.

Any tag as a first choice has higher odds of drawing than does not entering.

 

[khunter]

Now, haven’t heard the details, but hoping that if my number 1,2, or 3 is not available to me once it comes to me on then1st round then my number 4 is then my 1st choice and not skip me since first choice is gone.

What are you trying to say? They draw will run 5 separate rounds a d your place in line will be the same each round except for folks who drew already being pulled out of line.

Your listed choice for each round will be the hunt code they check each round.

 

[IdahoBeav]

Everyones 1st choice is done before they move to the 2nd choice. Meaning your 2nd choice does not even get looked at until everyones 1st has been gone thru. So there likely will not be many if any tags available for a 2nd choice.

There will be some that make it to 2nd choice. These zones were available weeks beyond the final returned tag sale. The only reason they had been getting purchased in the old December sales is because in the later stages of the sale, they were the only tags available, and people that did little research bought them only because they didn't want to go empty handed. I don't believe many people now will have these hunts on as a 1st choice.

 

[Ross]

Go for the moon guys, crappy units suck and the wolves have eaten them all. Go Big or go home

 

[SouthernCharm]

Everyones 1st choice is done before they move to the 2nd choice. Meaning your 2nd choice does not even get looked at until everyones 1st has been gone thru. So there likely will not be many if any elk tags available for a 2nd choice.

Thanks for the clarification, don’t like it, but they make the rules.

 

[BuckSmasher]

The tag you're eying sold out very quickly in recent years. It's a popular hunt. It sells out quickly in the resident sale as well.

Any tag as a first choice has higher odds of drawing than does not entering.

Now I'm curious

 

[JM151]

Just waiting for somebody to list out their strategies and then list the units. All the information is available, just look.

 

[SouthernCharm]

I’m using my homemade roulettes wheel, works for my other draws.