ID NR Elk Poll

[Steve O]

Unfortunately your odds will be a lot less now. With the requirement to buy a license to apply for deer and elk a lot of new controlled applicants for sheep, moose, etc. will happen since people already have a license.

Yeah people are in denial with NR odds for sheep in Idaho…the application services report out they are the best there are for NR. That’s true for the one or two units that may draw a NR tag…the other 20 units are infinitely bad. I’ve been doing this for over a quarter century and I’m well aware of how the odds work everywhere there are sheep tags offered and take my chances in most of them. If a non resident is putting in for a sheep tag today with confidence of being drawn (now that Wyoming has just about completed their hose job of us) unless they are one of a handful in AZ with max points, they are a special kind of stupid. My sheep tags in Colorado and Arizona have come with nowhere near max points and only with help from above. I don’t see another Canadian sheep hunt in my future so another draw is all I’ve got and have no delusions of beating any system or worrying about my odds going from .0003 to .0001

 

[WRO]

Yeah people are in denial with NR odds for sheep in Idaho…the application services report out they are the best there are for NR. That’s true for the one or two units that may draw a NR tag…the other 20 units are infinitely bad. I’ve been doing this for over a quarter century and I’m well aware of how the odds work everywhere there are sheep tags offered and take my chances in most of them. If a non resident is putting in for a sheep tag today with confidence of being drawn (now that Wyoming has just about completed their hose job of us) unless they are one of a handful in AZ with max points, they are a special kind of stupid. My sheep tags in Colorado and Arizona have come with nowhere near max points and only with help from above. I don’t see another Canadian sheep hunt in my future so another draw is all I’ve got and have no delusions of beating any system or worrying about my odds going from .0003 to .0001

Compared to how shitty they are in other states, their actually pretty decent (by sheep standards) but are hugely expensive to apply for.

 

[Huntnnw]

Unfortunately your odds will be a lot less now. With the requirement to buy a license to apply for deer and elk a lot of new controlled applicants for sheep, moose, etc. will happen since people already have a license.

highly unlikely! Your either in for OIL tags now or not at all.

 

[Fogalo]

There’s some MBA at IDFG reading this thread and thinking about value based pricing. Watch license cost go to $300 next year.

 

[Wrench]

I'm not going to apply for the former otc tags. I will apply for controlled tags. I'll just hunt with my camera if I don't get a tag. The reward of a mediocre tag isn't of interest to me....but I'll burn days on a controlled tag or hopefully my other state choices.

 

[LFC911]

So if our sample is significant and results are accurate, about 20% of folks that used to get in line in person/proxy or the online for the December ID fiasco are going to sit this one out.

 

[High Climber]

I'm out this year. Whether I play in the future depends on what the actual odds are for the tags. $180 isn't all that big of a deal in point states when you need the points to draw or with predictable outcomes. However, $180 annually for low odds on a ho-hum tag with zero odds increase in following years is not an attractive setup for those that dont already have ties to hunting there.

Edit to add: $203 ($185 license +$18 for elk) is a good step over the $78 to apply in NM (the other totally random draw). Be interested to see how the odds compare between the two. I know NM is worth it to me to take a flyer on a good hunt if I dont have tags already lined up for the year. I dont know many ID hunts would be on par with mid level or higher tags in NM?

I don’t know man, fronting the tag fees in NM keeps a lot of people out I think… myself included most years. Lots more available tags in ID, but the quality and experience isn’t going to be comparable to decent tags in NM in most cases

 

[wind gypsy]

I don’t know man, fronting the tag fees in NM keeps a lot of people out I think… myself included most years. Lots more available tags in ID, but the quality and experience isn’t going to be comparable to decent tags in NM in most cases

Interesting. WY holds more money than NM and for elk they do it for like 5 months instead of 1 and that doesn't seem to be a big deterrent. I'd think having a $200+ sunk cost would be a bigger deterrent than having $700 (or whatever the NM fees are) tied up for a month before getting refunded.

Really interested to see how the odds play out. That'll be the decider on if it's worth it or not. A guy can have 60% odds with 0 points on a MT general tag. If comparable level ID tags dont have odds approaching MT it'll be a harder sell IMO.

 

[High Climber]

Interesting. WY holds more money than NM and for elk they do it for like 5 months instead of 1 and that doesn't seem to be a big deterrent. I'd think having a $200+ sunk cost would be a bigger deterrent than having $700 (or whatever the NM fees are) tied up for a month before getting refunded.

Really interested to see how the odds play out. That'll be the decider on if it's worth it or not. A guy can have 60% odds with 0 points on a MT general tag. If comparable level ID tags dont have odds approaching MT it'll be a harder sell IMO.

Good points here, and Wyoming holding my money that long is probably the reason why I rarely apply in NM versus the actual fronting of the $…But if NM had points I would damn sure pay up yearly
I will be surprised if the top 5-6 zones come out with even 20% draw odds first choice but should be a few zones that will be 100%