Help me understand CO draw statistics

[Wyohunth]

I’m having trouble interpreting the CO draw stats for a random elk unit. In this case it looks like 13% odds for a non resident to draw with 1 point. Where I get confused is the pre vs post application columns. It looks like 6 of 12 NRs with 2 points drew and 5 of 6 with 3 points drew. With a pure preference point system, why wouldn’t every 3 point holder draw first? Are these accounting for folks that modified or withdrew their applications? Any insights are appreciated!

 

[cnelk]

You might want to look at the most current draw odds

 

[Wyohunth]

This example is from the 2024 report, but that isn’t relevant. Let me rephrase. If an applicant with 1 preference point has a greater than zero percent chance of drawing (at least one person with 1 point drew) doesn’t that mean that applicants with more than 1 point have a 100% chance of drawing?

 

[cnelk]

Not necessarily - the applicant(s) with more than 1 PP may have been part of a group application. And group applications only recognizes the lowest PP of the group.

 

[sndmn11]

This example is from the 2024 report, but that isn’t relevant. Let me rephrase. If an applicant with 1 preference point has a greater than zero percent chance of drawing (at least one person with 1 point drew) doesn’t that mean that applicants with more than 1 point have a 100% chance of drawing?

Group apps

 

[Wyohunth]

Ahh yes. I did not think about that. Thank you kindly.