Have Ontario Whitetail numbers recovered yet?

Joined
Jun 23, 2019
Messages
1,483
Location
Florida,Dwneast Me,Catskills
When I was researching a whitetail hunt there 4 years ago, a few Ontario residents, and even some local outfitters, advised me to save my money and book elsewhere for a few years until the herds rebounded some. I'm wondering if 4 years was enough to increase the herd back to previous levels, or should I give it a few more years.

Also, does anyone have any personal experience and recommendations for a quality outfitter up that way?
 
Numbers are recovering very slowly. Talked to several people from up there as well as a few people from my home area that went up there this past season 2021. I would wait at least 2-3 years with good winters. Wolves sound like a big problem also.
 
I have a friend in NW Ontario north of Vermillion Bay that has a resort (camp) and they got smacked with snow early and keep getting more. I don’t thinks he has ran deer hunts for the last 3 or 4 seasons now due to the low deer numbers. He said he won’t again this year. He said if they don’t get a early warmup it could be another large winter kill.
He also said the wolves are eating well with the deep snow. Which sucks as I was hoping to get up there this fall.
 
It’s a big province but I assume at least the parts north of MN are hurting bad like northern MN is. Finally caught a break last winter with it being extremely mild but they’ll need a lot more than one mild winter at least in northern MN.
 
A friend and his son went up and got 3 wolves. Lots of wolves , not much
other game. The specific area I do not know, just north of Minnesota.
 
Were the past several winters worse than they historically were, or was there a period of abnormally warm winters that grew the deer herd? Seems odd that it would be attributed to the winters in an area that historically has had bad winters? Or is a abnormally mild winter just what folks are looking toward for a big recovery year?

Aware of wolves, thought that area had had wolves fairly continuously over the past several decades though (??). Has the wolf population across ontario increased so much that its mostly the wolves?
 
I went for a number of years during the "hay days" early to mid 2000's, but stopped when things slowed down. Sioux Narrows/Kenora area. I have a couple buddies who have continued going religiously every year. They have been struggling the last few years. Aside from some nocturnal cam pics, they've been returning with tag soup.
 
Here’s a rather long winded update: I’ve hunted the Rainy River district in NW Ontario every year (except 2020) since I bought land in 2003. We saw the decline in deer numbers really hit in about 2015 after back to back deep snow winters. It started to rebound a bit but then more snow and 2023 & 2024 were pretty slow. I rarely shoot a buck up here but that said, I haven’t seen a truly good one, say 150 class, since 2015. I hunt shooting lanes I’ve cut in mostly thick areas + a friend’s land with open pasture bordering hundreds of acres of bush. I don’t bait but think all other hunters up here do and many have huge cleared shooting lanes/raised box blinds, and they do see more deer, but for the most part their sightings and success on bigger bucks are also down dramatically since the ~pre-2015 timeframe. A few nice bucks are still taken, with bait and some by sheer perseverance & exploring more territory. One positive change is that with reduced deer numbers + increased enforcement against road hunters, the number of hunters that show up just to road hunt and, in some cases trespass, are way down.

Wolves have been around here forever but now do seem more prevalent than in the past and they do kill mature bucks; I found a fresh pre-rut big one some years back. In the past I mainly hoped they’d at least not move into my areas during season because the deer seemed to lay low even when they were abundant, but now they are spotted regularly by locals. Last season I had 6 wolves chase a doe by me. Three of them were completely naked of fur, two had less mange and one looked “normal” and I figured “good, they’ll start to die out”, but my neighbor has seen packs this year within 1.5 miles of my cabin and also down the road where I hunt, including pups. So things seem still outta balance here.

I just arrived last night for a 10 day hunt. One group hunted north of me and headed back to return in a week. They said hunting “sucked” due to warmth and deer numbers. I also hunt up there and sign is not prolific. Around my camp sign is a bit better and there are some doe groups down the road, but I know it’ll likely be another slow hunt.

I hunt pretty primitively, mostly brush blinds and some with a boulder seat & backrest, but that’s how I learned to hunt deer & how I like it. I like to be out where I can hear and smell everything. I’d probably do better watching a pile of corn but am ok without it. Around my cabin there’s pasture that attracts deer & provides forage, but north of here about 10 miles it’s all bush. There was a tremendous amount of clear cutting up there, mostly poplar, before I started hunting and some afterwards, but the great forage that provided is now grown up and deer numbers just can’t rebound to the early 2000s level. Farther north than I go are more recent cuts that should be relatively better.

I’m nearly 75 and arthritis everywhere tells me I’m nearing the end of this but I wouldn’t have changed a thing, other than taking a few big bucks vs passing shots years ago, when I was not good at judging these big bodied bucks. I’d been on a couple guided hunts before I bought this and while I scored a bear and two caribou I decided I’d rather just hunt my own way, for whitetail bucks. If you like big woods hunting where deer densities are low but there’s a chance at a big heavy buck, you might like this. If you want to see multiple racked bucks while you wait for your big one, there are probably better locations.


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Were the past several winters worse than they historically were, or was there a period of abnormally warm winters that grew the deer herd? Seems odd that it would be attributed to the winters in an area that historically has had bad winters? Or is a abnormally mild winter just what folks are looking toward for a big recovery year?

Aware of wolves, thought that area had had wolves fairly continuously over the past several decades though (??). Has the wolf population across ontario increased so much that its mostly the wolves?

Old post here but weighing in based on the MN side of the border. 21 and 22 were awful winters with very deep snow from early through way too late into the spring. Population had not fully recovered from winters in the mid 20-teens going into that. The deep snow not only makes it hard to get to food and preserve calories but it makes deer more susceptible to wolves and the wolf predation makes it harder for deer to conserve calories. Bear #'s are also high and they are hard on fawns that weren't already aborted due to poor doe body condition. At least in N. MN, there is less mature white cedar that has traditionally been the best thermal cover and winter browse than in times past.

All that combines to mean the deer population is hurting. We got lucky the last two years with historically mild winters which helps a lot but it sounds like we still have a ways to go.
 
@wind gypsy thanks, I wasnt sure through the whole post what the deer were recovering FROM.

question: was the pre-2015 deer population referenced a 10 or 15-year bubble from a period of milder winters, or is the population down from a very long term average? Or have winters actually gotten snowier lately? Or have the deer yards all been cut, as in Maine? (which is what lots of people including the state biologists credit with crashing the deer population there thru the early to mid 2000’s)
 
@wind gypsy thanks, I wasnt sure through the whole post what the deer were recovering FROM.

question: was the pre-2015 deer population referenced a 10 or 15-year bubble from a period of milder winters, or is the population down from a very long term average? Or have winters actually gotten snowier lately? Or have the deer yards all been cut, as in Maine? (which is what lots of people including the state biologists credit with crashing the deer population there thru the early to mid 2000’s)

It was definitely a bubble in the 90s and first decade+ of the 2000s. I think it was the 80s when aspen logging really picked up and created a ton of habitat and combined without many severe winters things were booming. They say that eventually the timber harvest went too far to where it was a detriment to habitat, i dont know for sure. Some of the deer yards have been cut. in the 11 years following 2012, 7 of the winters were classified as "moderately severe" or worse based on number of days below 0 degrees and number of days with snow depth over 15" in much of northern MN.

So yeah, there was a hell of a boom cycle there to a pretty big bust cycle. Simpletons like to just blame one thing (wolves) but there's definitely more to it. The population went bust in the 70s due to a bad stretch of winters and there were a lot fewer wolves then. The wolves still suck. We tried to improve habitat and put a lot of food on a 170 acre parcel up there and it was a buzzkill because eventually the wolves know where the deer are focused and at times all the work is counterproductive because the deer instead move to try to avoid the wolves. Some of the best spots are near development/busy roads just because wolves are less likely to be there.
 
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