Gohunt

[jpuckett]

I thought how they broke down the terrain, whether super steep and rocky or all sage flats etc... gave me a good idea of if it had what I was looking for. Then it broke down the success rates/draw odds/sex ratio for the unit. Those things gave me the confidence to know if where I like to hunt and how I like to hunt and it that'd be realistic in the area


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[Devonian]

I've found it useful but I'm not sure it was worth the cost. Supposedly they are about to add some features that will allow you to save the research you've done.
Has anyone won a monthly prize or known someone who has?

 

[TheCougar]

I'm also on the fence about it. I bought it this year so I can plan out of state hunts for next fall. I'm an Az resident and some of their numbers for Arizona are off... for example, it says I have a 100% chance of drawing unit 10 early archery bull with 9 points. The actual odds are closer to 10%. Unit 9 is also way off. I mean, maybe I'm wrong and I do have great odds, but when I check the source data from azgfd it doesn't agree. Is it a valuable service? Yes. Is there goodness? Yes. Is there enough goodness to justify $100 a year? I'm not so sure, but over the next year I plan on determining if I want to keep my subscription. Right now it makes sense because we split the cost amongst my hunting group and I use the site to research units and tell everyone where to apply and when.

 

[cgasner1]

That sucks to hear the draw odds are also off the unit I'm looking at hunting in colorado the success rate is way off they say like 28% it's more like 13 or 14 and half of those elk taken are cows and calfs

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[wapitibob]

Cougar:
GoHunt does not use predictive odds, they're odds for the previous year. Starting with 2016 they ran some voodoo on the numbers looking at both chances and points to give you a better look.. Most of the apps ahead of you shown in the Bonus Pass report are NR.
I'll let you do the math; deduct these 1st/2nd choice nr apps from the Bonus Pass and see where you are...

17, 1
16, 7
15, 10
14, 13
13, 10
12, 36
11, 38
10, 29
9, 28
8, 36

 

[R_burg]

I'm also on the fence about it. I bought it this year so I can plan out of state hunts for next fall. I'm an Az resident and some of their numbers for Arizona are off... for example, it says I have a 100% chance of drawing unit 10 early archery bull with 9 points. The actual odds are closer to 10%. Unit 9 is also way off. I mean, maybe I'm wrong and I do have great odds, but when I check the source data from azgfd it doesn't agree. Is it a valuable service? Yes. Is there goodness? Yes. Is there enough goodness to justify $100 a year? I'm not so sure, but over the next year I plan on determining if I want to keep my subscription. Right now it makes sense because we split the cost amongst my hunting group and I use the site to research units and tell everyone where to apply and when.

Would you mind linking to where on AZGF you are getting the numbers to calculate your odds yourself? I would like to run them as well.

I know the AZGF pdf lists unit 10 as 9%, is that what you are using?

 

[R_burg]

That sucks to hear the draw odds are also off the unit I'm looking at hunting in colorado the success rate is way off they say like 28% it's more like 13 or 14 and half of those elk taken are cows and calfs

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Where are you getting these numbers?

Thanks

 

[TheCougar]

Would you mind linking to where on AZGF you are getting the numbers to calculate your odds yourself? I would like to run them as well.

I know the AZGF pdf lists unit 10 as 9%, is that what you are using?

Arizona Game & Fish Department - Draw

Scroll down to find all the numbers for bonus and 1/2 pass. You need to be careful, the hunt numbers change from year to year and the tag allocation also can change, which affects your current draw odds

 

[cgasner1]

2015 hunter report from Colorado it's on the website

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[TheCougar]

Cougar:
GoHunt does not use predictive odds, they're odds for the previous year. Starting with 2016 they ran some voodoo on the numbers looking at both chances and points to give you a better look.. Most of the apps ahead of you shown in the Bonus Pass report are NR.
I'll let you do the math; deduct these 1st/2nd choice nr apps from the Bonus Pass and see where you are...

17, 1
16, 7
15, 10
14, 13
13, 10
12, 36
11, 38
10, 29
9, 28
8, 36

I'm not sure where you got those numbers, but thanks. I wasn't subtracting those. They still sort of count, I think, since a portion of the tags are allocated to NR. I think that GH takes into account the people who drew in the previous year, removes them from the pool, assumes the same numbers apply year to year, and uses the previous year tag allocation to determine your draw forecast for upcoming year. It's varsity level math. Last year, Consider that in the 9-15bp pool, 182 people applied for 1/2d choice unit 10 archery bull, of which 21 drew. All of the remaining 161 people are in front of me this year with 25 fewer tags (gohunt wont predict the fewer tags). There is a huge disparity between the numbers on paper and the 100% GH draw odds. Wapatibob, I would love for you to prove me wrong! I drew a tag last year and then had to turn it back in when I got a no notice deployment. I've pretty much resigned to my fate to wait another 5 years before I draw my once-in-a-lifetime tag. The end of march is typically a sad time around my house. Maybe GH can help fix that.

 

[R_burg]

Arizona Game & Fish Department - Draw

Scroll down to find all the numbers for bonus and 1/2 pass. You need to be careful, the hunt numbers change from year to year and the tag allocation also can change, which affects your current draw odds

Thank you. This doesn't divide in state and out of state though, does it?

I'll have to look again tomorrow when I'm more awake haha.

 

[cgasner1]

It had it all broke down on a chart days hunted tags filled number of hunters

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[corylee4870]

I'm not very impressed with it. Good idea but just a not accurate.

I've found a few units with draw odds that were off and a few with success rate and the number of tags off.

The filtering isn't great either. You can filter by success but it only gives you the percentage of the last year. Really needs to give you a 3 or 5 year average. Might be 35% success last year but 7-12% the 3 years prior.

Guess you can't be 100% accurate with that much data but I would double check data before putting in for a tag.

 

[d-bone20917]

Has anyone won a monthly prize or known someone who has?

I won a set of the Vortex Razor binos in the November giveaway.

 

[wapitibob]

I'm not sure where you got those numbers, but thanks. I wasn't subtracting those. They still sort of count, I think, since a portion of the tags are allocated to NR. I think that GH takes into account the people who drew in the previous year, removes them from the pool, assumes the same numbers apply year to year, and uses the previous year tag allocation to determine your draw forecast for upcoming year. It's varsity level math. Last year, Consider that in the 9-15bp pool, 182 people applied for 1/2d choice unit 10 archery bull, of which 21 drew. All of the remaining 161 people are in front of me this year with 25 fewer tags (gohunt wont predict the fewer tags). There is a huge disparity between the numbers on paper and the 100% GH draw odds. Wapatibob, I would love for you to prove me wrong! I drew a tag last year and then had to turn it back in when I got a no notice deployment. I've pretty much resigned to my fate to wait another 5 years before I draw my once-in-a-lifetime tag. The end of march is typically a sad time around my house. Maybe GH can help fix that.

I'm not going to argue with you but the NR apps, per point level I listed count a whole lot more than "sort of"; they're non residents. It doesn't matter if there are 1000 of them.

So, some explanation;
The report is for the 2016 draw, in which you had 8 points, you now have 9. Looking at the numbers from the Bonus Pass that includes both res and nr, there were 192 apps at 9 points and above. Looking at NR only, which I listed above, 172 of them were non residents (leaving only 20 residents). NR can only draw up to 6 of those tags in the Bonus Pass, the 20 residents ahead of you got cleared out to complete the 20% Bonus Pass. That leaves your point pool of residents going into 2017. There were 52 in the combined 8 point pool, 36 of them being non residents. NR can only draw 6 tags, leaving the rest for residents.

Therefor, based on 2016 app numbers, you have a 100% chance at drawing in the Bonus Pass in 2017.

 

[cnelk]

WapitiBob knows his stuff

 

[Riplip]

I just joined, so far I really like the site and would be good place to start your research if unfamiliar with a State or area. As with any type of media or information obtained online its always a good idea to confirm though additional sources. Besides maybe I will get lucky and win something.

 

[TheCougar]

Wapatibob mic drop!

I'm not going to argue with you but the NR apps, per point level I listed count a whole lot more than "sort of"; they're non residents. It doesn't matter if there are 1000 of them.

So, some explanation;
The report is for the 2016 draw, in which you had 8 points, you now have 9. Looking at the numbers from the Bonus Pass that includes both res and nr, there were 192 apps at 9 points and above. Looking at NR only, which I listed above, 172 of them were non residents (leaving only 20 residents). NR can only draw up to 6 of those tags in the Bonus Pass, the 20 residents ahead of you got cleared out to complete the 20% Bonus Pass. That leaves your point pool of residents going into 2017. There were 52 in the combined 8 point pool, 36 of them being non residents. NR can only draw 6 tags, leaving the rest for residents.

Therefor, based on 2016 app numbers, you have a 100% chance at drawing in the Bonus Pass in 2017.

Wow, that is varsity level! I had never delved into the numbers like that. Maybe it is false hope, but I sure hope not. Thanks for taking me to school. I just got knowledged by wapatibob! I love rokslide! The depth and breadth of knowledge of the members is priceless.

 

[wapitibob]

That's all based on everything staying the same; no new apps with more points jumping in, etc. Also, some of those 2nd choice apps will draw their first; for 2016, 3 Nr and 5 residents drew their first choice in another unit
I wouldn't go buy a new hunting truck but you have a good shot and as a max point guy for that hunt, you'll have a weighted advantage in the 1-2 Pass.