I hate to be that guy and come across like a dick. But weren't you the guy that was screaming from the roof tops for everyone to move all their money in cash since the market was "going to crash" a couple of years ago. You may very well be right on the construction work. But in my area they are building massive housing additions as fast as they can build them. And not low end stuff either.
Yup I’ve been wrong once a bunch of times, that being said, I’ve got a bit more knowledge about the industry I’ve been in for the last 2 decades vs the stock market.
The higher end house is still moving and self financed builders can still build, big commercial is not doing great. I’m in acquisitions and development and it’s trending down overall.
Housing is a weird bubble right now, as those of us in our sub 3% mortgages aren’t going anywhere so the new construction guys have a life line until allot of these severance packages run out locally.
New project starts are down, talking to architects in the business, there’s a lot of projects mothballed. There’s also I pile of very leveraged raw land and commercial (mostly office) that’s bound for repossession in the next 2 years.
Everything coming up right now, was put into place 2-5 years ago.
With an election year coming, I think we’ll see the true drop post election.
Like I said I’ve been wrong a couple times, so take it for what it’s worth.
You can’t finance a proforma built on a 5 cap in a 7+ cap market.