Expo Tags - results

CorbLand

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Not quite. Even though there are 200 tags, only one hunt type is what you're buying a chance for. Some hunt types have 5 tags while others only have 1. You're still only getting one application or chance for that hunt type, not the number of tags available for that hunt type. A hunt type is San Juan archery bull and another is a Central Manti late season bull.

To win a hunt, it would be like walking up to a bucket with 2,995 white marbles and 5 green marbles. A green marble is a tag. You only get one chance to reach in and pull a marble. Out of 3,000 guys standing in line, 5 will pull a green marble. Your odds are still only 1:3,000 for that hunt type. Now repeat this process with the other remaining hunt types offered against the tags offered and number of applicants per hunt type.
So how would you calculate the odds of you doing that for all hunt type available and pulling one green marble?
 
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No luck for me in the draw. Had an "Average Joe" friend draw a tag 2 years ago for bull elk. He has only applied and been to the Expo once... I have applied every year for 3 or 4 years no luck for me.
 
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Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Good luck with an Utah DA looking into $FW! They don’t even have to report what they do with any of the money from the hunt expo! Total scam operation
 

Steve O

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Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Unless you have great friends and partners up to the Governor level. Once that UFC fighter won the desert sheep tag I decided things were way too fishy to bother dreaming about one of those tags.

The influencers and industry folks do have a better chance as they are paid to be there every year but one time at the Expo is probably my one and done.
 
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So how would you calculate the odds of you doing that for all hunt type available and pulling one green marble?

Hunt Type 'A' - 5 tags available, 3000 apps
Tag 1: 1/3000 = .03%
Tag 2: 1/2999 = .03%
Tag 3: 1/2998 = .03%
Tag 4: 1/2997 = .03%
Tag 5: 1/2996 = .03%

Hunt Type 'B' - 2 tags available, 7500 apps
Tag 1: 1/7500 = .01%
Tag 2: 1/7499 = .01%

Do this for all hunt types you bought a "marble" for and then take a weighted avg.
 
Joined
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Utah
I happened to draw one of the LE rifle mule deer tags this year. Just a normal guy who's never won anything like this before.

To this point, I've only ever hunted low/no point units or OTC so I'm very appreciative of the opportunity.

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Rich M

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They have to give some of the tags to celebrities so there are movies made and free advertisements where they talk about winning the tag and how lucky they were to get it out of 5,000/10,000 guys for the 6th time.

Pretty lousy, but there is a purpose.

My uncle used to win a lot of raffles and such - main reason was that he bought $20 of tickets for each raffle, every time.
 
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nobody

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I’m no proponent of SFW, and wouldn’t trust them to take care of a pet rock, let alone be good stewards of our “conservation dollars.” So let me start with that.

But with that being said, this happens every year, and honestly doesn’t seem that much of a stretch. Roughly 200 tags available, and several thousand applicants. The odds of “Remi” specifically drawing ANY tag are low overall. But you’ve gotta step back and think about how many famous people and “influencers” are playing the game. Between every insta-celebrity, the Meateater crew (probably 8-15 of their guys applied), Hush (probably 10 or so for their crew), Randy’s crew (7-10 apps for them), Born and Raised Outdoors (5-ish of them), hunting companies like Stone Glacier and GoHunt and OnX (gotta make hunt films for marketing purposes), and every other YouTube hunter on the market, the odds that SOMEBODY with their face on social media gets a tag is relatively high. Whether it was Remi Warren or Steve Rinella or Randy Newberg or Lyle from Stone Glacier’s marketing team who won the tag raffle doesn’t matter. An “influencer” is gonna get a tag every year by sheer luck of the draw. Not necessarily the same influencers always, but AN influencer or 2 or 3 is going to get A tag every single year. I’m no math guru and got a C+ in stats in college, but it doesn’t surprise me at all that, mathematically, a couple people who could be designated an influencer won a couple of the tags. In reading the list, there were 2 “famous people” that I recognize their names that got tags: Remi Warren and Gage Butler (Casey from Hush’s son). That’s 2 of the 200 tags that went to “famous people” this year, about 1%. In my puny math brain, that means if there were 200,000 total tag applications, 2,000 of them came from influencer types. If every influencer puts in for every tag, that would mean only 10 influencers would need to put in for everything to mathematically make it to where 2 of them got a singular tag. I know stats isn’t that simple, but even if my influencer application numbers are off by a factor of 5 and it actually takes 50 influencers applying for every tag to hit that 1% threshold, it’s not that far fetched. Heck, I rattled off 40 at the top of my post.

My feeling is that if guys are THAT mad about how the draws are run and feel they’re so shady and dishonest, just stop sending them money every year. Don’t put in for tags, don’t pay to go to the expo, don’t play the game. The only way to topple the perceived corruption is if the money dries up. But somehow, my guess is that in 11 months, everyone will have forgotten about this year’s draw and will instead be pouring over the list of tags again, squirreling money away, and dreaming about the potential of drawing that Book Cliffs Bison tag.
 
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Trial153

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While outliers are very possible and probable the numbers still don’t add up.
 
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I’m no proponent of SFW, and wouldn’t trust them to take care of a pet rock, let alone be good stewards of our “conservation dollars.” So let me start with that.

But with that being said, this happens every year, and honestly doesn’t seem that much of a stretch. Roughly 200 tags available, and several thousand applicants. The odds of “Remi” specifically drawing ANY tag are low overall. But you’ve gotta step back and think about how many famous people and “influencers” are playing the game. Between every insta-celebrity, the Meateater crew (probably 8-15 of their guys applied), Hush (probably 10 or so for their crew), Randy’s crew (7-10 apps for them), Born and Raised Outdoors (5-ish of them), hunting companies like Stone Glacier and GoHunt and OnX (gotta make hunt films for marketing purposes), and every other YouTube hunter on the market, the odds that SOMEBODY with their face on social media gets a tag is relatively high. Whether it was Remi Warren or Steve Rinella or Randy Newberg or Lyle from Stone Glacier’s marketing team who won the tag raffle doesn’t matter. An “influencer” is gonna get a tag every year by sheer luck of the draw. Not necessarily the same influencers always, but AN influencer or 2 or 3 is going to get A tag every single year. I’m no math guru and got a C+ in stats in college, but it doesn’t surprise me at all that, mathematically, a couple people who could be designated an influencer won a couple of the tags. In reading the list, there were 2 “famous people” that I recognize their names that got tags: Remi Warren and Gage Butler (Casey from Hush’s son). That’s 2 of the 200 tags that went to “famous people” this year, about 1%. In my puny math brain, that means if there were 200,000 total tag applications, 2,000 of them came from influencer types. If every influencer puts in for every tag, that would mean only 10 influencers would need to put in for everything to mathematically make it to where 2 of them got a singular tag. I know stats isn’t that simple, but even if my influencer application numbers are off by a factor of 5 and it actually takes 50 influencers applying for every tag to hit that 1% threshold, it’s not that far fetched. Heck, I rattled off 40 at the top of my post.

My feeling is that if guys are THAT mad about how the draws are run and feel they’re so shady and dishonest, just stop sending them money every year. Don’t put in for tags, don’t pay to go to the expo, don’t play the game. The only way to topple the perceived corruption is if the money dries up. But somehow, my guess is that in 11 months, everyone will have forgotten about this year’s draw and will instead be pouring over the list of tags again, squirreling money away, and dreaming about the potential of drawing that Book Cliffs Bison tag.

To add to this, the majority of people likely aren’t applying for every tag. I only put $100 toward these draws every year. Odds are low for everyone. I’m guessing if my livelihood was earned thru hunting media, I would be a lot more willing to drop the $785 it takes to apply for every tag they offer.

Another factor nobody weighs is luck. Whether you choose to believe it or not, luck does exist. I have applied for bighorn sheep in Idaho for 15 years in a row now, and not drawn, in that same time period I have a buddy who has applied twice for bighorn sheep and once for mountain goat and drawn all 3 times he has applied. Some people just seem to have all the draw luck.


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The median, or "middle odds" of pulling just any tag if you bought a chance for each hunt offering is 0.027%.

The lowest were the Henry's and Pausnsaugunt Premium ALW at 0.009% and the highest was a SE turkey tag at 0.25%.
 
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CorbLand

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I have been pretty open about my dislike of SFW but I will give them two things.

One, they show up when its time to show up. Go watch the board meetings for Utah, they are there every single time. I listened to one of the chapter heads of RMEF complain when Utah was trying to change the OTC elk tags to a draw. RMEF still didnt show up to board meeting.

Two, they really do put their money where their mouth is. There isnt an origination that is doing more work in Utah and its not just on big name units. They were one of the biggest contributors of funds and getting volunteers to help with the feeding last year. I saw one of them at the Expo and asked if/when they were going to start feeding and how I could help? In less than 24 hours, he had me in contact with the person feeding just up the road from my house and I had 10 bags of feed in my garage. I was a member of BHA and RMEF, I asked many times to help with projects, still waiting to hear back on those.

Love them or hate them, they do show up.

Edit to add. I am not a member of SFW.
 
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Pacific_Fork

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I highly doubt it’s corrupt. I would just argue it’s not good for hunting. Influencer wins a tag taken from the general pool/average joe, then promotes the hunt all over SM thus driving up point creep and further overcrowding in OTC hunts. None of this is good for wildlife or current hunters.
 
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There isnt an origination that is doing more work in Utah and its not just on big name units.

I would hope so, it's a UT born 'n breed organization. It tried to take root across the Rocky Mtn west and had a good showing for a time, but I think locals directors began to use it for personal gain. NM in particular...
 
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