Already pulled the Winchester brass for hunting rounds as it is annoying to reload (some of the cases try to pop out of the hand primer and I have to hold them in by hand). The FC brass has tight primer pockets despite having the crimp reamed, and I'm tired of messing with it too. So this will be the last data point.
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This is a prefect example of the mystery of ES. Not my theory but another young man, Ian Klemm, vortex pod cast? I have experienced this myself and fellow shooting buddies. Loads that have ES’s that are not what you would think is a good load but groups better than a load with a tighter ES at longer distance. What?? Well, as the theory goes it has more to do with when the bullet leaves the barrel, barrel dwell time, during the whip or harmonic cycle. He calls it positive compensation. Here is a clip, check it out.
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In the three targets you listed i would shoot load #2, (target 2) at you max distance you intend to use the round and see what the dispersion looks like. One thing to keep in mind is that working with small cartridges, it is tougher to control ES than it is with larger cartridges, simply due to the percent of powder. Target 3 is some what strange. Shots 1,2,3 and 4 are the ones to question. Is it shooter error or is on the edge of a scatter node? Granted we are looking at three different brass types but there is some correlation as it pertains to bullet exit, timing. So, lets say if you really wanted to use the Starline brass, maybe pull some powder to achieve the lower 2500 fps range and see what you get. The reason I mention this is look at the SIG target posted earlier above, tight water line and that lower 2500fps range. That ES is nothing to write home about for sure but that doesn’t mean you can’t achieve A lower ES with the other brass and a solid grouping. That’s how i would work the load moving forward.
Bottom line, ES is important, and you should try and control it as much as you can, but don’t beat your self up over it. Work with in your means and be realistic. Set your MOA goal throughout the range you intend to use the cartridge and work to achieve that goal. If it shoots 1 MOA at 100 yards and 1/2 MOA a 400 then that is a win.