I know the feeling. Being from Minnesota and unable to do any pre-scouting it can be a daunting task. At times it can seem overwhelming! I am no expert by any means as I still have yet to harvest an elk after 3 unsuccessful attempts. I've archery hunted both Colorado and Idaho and will be going to Idaho this year. And please, If anyone reading this has any tips or suggestions for helping a completely ADDICTED/OBSESSED elk hunter out to getting his first elk let me know! Maybe I'm going about it all wrong, idk.
Anyway, what I feel may be my best option to harvesting my first elk is to first decide which state offers me the most days hunting for me, in other words, which state will put me on the ground longer rather than in the truck driving.
Next I look at the OTC/General tags available and start looking at harvest percentages. Both Idaho and Colorado offer very good information on their websites for harvest numbers etc. I really like Idahos website for ease of use and the interactive map center. I am now going with the numbers game. If it doesn't have good odds of harvesting(for me this year it's 20% or above) i'm not going there. But that's just me. If you know what you're doing elk can be harvested in just about any unit regardless of the percentages. In the past the units I've hunted had 7% & 12%. Also the last few times I simply looked at accessibility, drive times and what I thought "looked like good elk country" even though I really had no idea other than North facing dark timber near water sources with good food source nearby.
Which brings me to the my next criteria. Food, water, shelter for the elk. Find this and there should be elk somewhere nearby provided they haven't been pushed out already by other hunters, predators, sheep etc.
That brings me to the next thing when I decide where to go which is always have a backup plan/area. Being from a long distance, like you I don't have the option of pre-scouting. I've had the best and worst elk hunting in the same area in Idaho due to sheep. One year I went in to an area at the end of September and there were elk everywhere and I ended up calling in a 5x5 for my dad. Learned a lot that year. The very next year I took a friend back there at the beginning of September and nothing but sheep. Everywhere! Only had a few days so had to find a whole new area, which i didn't plan for, so we were not able to locate any in the short time we had. So make sure wherever you choose to hunt you have an option of relocating somewhere nearby or at least have the maps for a different area because wildfires can ruin a trip as well.
The next thing i look for is hunter density. If there is an overwhelming number of hunters or hunters per square mile I tend to shy away from it. Even though I like to think i can get away from 50% of them by pushing further from the trailhead, you typically won't escape all of them. Especially being a flat lander like me.
And lastly, no matter how good of shape I'm in here, the mountains are a whole different breed so pick an area that will suit your fitness level and capabilities as well. Use topo maps and google earth to survey the area so to speak and see what exactly you're in for!
So, after i look at all the above mentioned items I rank them and pick based of those criteria. But, be careful not to get "analysis paralysis" and get stuck on all the small details either. Sometimes you just gotta pick a unit and go with it! I ALWAYS have a great time when i'm out in the woods chasing elk. My trips I would consider all to be successful in some way or the other because I learned something from every trip and I was able to spend time in the great outdoors!
I hope i haven't led you astray but just thought i'd lend my 2 cents to try help out!
