The most definitive measurement of pressure is case life. No matter the velocity, sticky bolt lift, ejector marks, primer flatness, brand of the case, or phase of the moon, if primers fall out, or partial head separations happen at three to five loadings it’s too hot. An average life of at least 10 loadings can provide quite high velocity and reasonable case life, but most people don’t have the time to go back 10x just to check a new load. The short cut that most closely matches case life is head expansion in the same plane as the primer pocket, but it requires good record keeping, tools and ability to measure to .0001”, and a good amount of “feel” for the process.
Case heads are not uniform in diameter, at least not at the .0001” level, so measurements have to be taken at exactly the same point each time. I generally pick the first letter in the head stamp and always measure at that point. Multiple measurements should be taken to get a good number.
Brass work hardens every time it’s shot, so brass will start out with large amounts of expansion and it tapers off quickly each reload. Starting out, for any brand of brass you almost have to measure and shoot them to failure to get a good feel for the expansion rates to judge future loads by. Some brass will continue to expand every shot and some will stop or nearly so, so it requires some judgement and experience to take a reading and know what it’s telling you. If you simply said a single case expanded .0004” without any background info it doesn’t mean anything. On a first firing that’s not necessarily a lot and if it is doing that at 5 reloads that’s a bunch.
Not every load needs this level of attention, so I put together the available clues. With a familiar brand of brass the depth of ejector mark, flatness of primer, ease of ejecting and velocity are fairly easy to estimate the number of reloads it will make.
Ejector marks are probably the least understood thing in reloading. If there is any kind of sharp edge on the ejector hole I’ve seen 10 ejector marks on a soft piece of brass that hadn’t failed yet. I seem to shoot a lot of Federal and Winchester brass and I typically expect one to three ejector marks before it work hardens enough to not show further marks. On the other hand, brass with a hard head can be spicy if any ejector mark shows up.
Primer quality is all over the board so I pay little attention unless primers are blanking, falling out, leaking, or look extra flat. Every brand is different and every lot has its own thickness and hardness. I’ve never had a firing pin so loose it blanked primers with pressures that allowed 10 reloads, so I assume anyone blanking primers is running spicy loads. Easy way to disable a rifle.
I also feel for the case head separation line with a paper clip. If you feel it every reloading it’s actually quite easy to feel the thinning progress and you’ll have a good idea the case is about to go before the ring is visible on the outside of the case. The idea is to cull the case before the head separates. In all my years I’ve never had a full head separation even though I shoot until the cases are barely clinging to life and might even have a small partial separation when culled.
There’s 0% chance a published max is anywhere as close to a true max in terms of powder weight or velocity with your unique combination of rifle chamber, bore variances, lot of powder, lot of case, lot of bullet, lot of primer. Some rifles top out 100 fps early and some top out 100 fps fast. That’s all I know.
