Colorado Draw Report Oddity...How Does This Happen?

[Mighty Mouse]

I was looking at past draw recap reports researching possible tags for the future and stumbled across these odd results. 185 1st choice applicants failed to draw this particular tag, yet 1732 tags went to 2nd and 3rd choice applicants. How does this happen?

 

[Shō[t]gun]

The numbers don't line up starting at 4 points for non-res. It's gotta be that they turned the tag back in or didn't pay for it after a successful draw.

 

[KsRancher]

I see that people all the way up there with four points didn't draw. I am sure there is a good explanation. And when someone points it out it will like "oh ya, that's why" but I am currently drawing a blank

 

[Shō[t]gun]

I hope those 2 that dropped 18 on a giveaway draw got what they were after!

 

[Mighty Mouse]

The numbers don't line up starting at 4 points for non-res. It's gotta be that they turned the tag back in or didn't pay for it after a successful draw.

I thought about that, but the draw report is dated May 19, which was ≈2 weeks before the results were published, so there wouldn't have been any opportunity to return/fail to pay.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Just guessing it could have been party applications? Where someone had points and someone didn’t and lowest points is what is used I think.

That does sometimes create apparent anomalies in the reports, but in this case even a 0 point group should have all gotten tags before any 2nd/3rd choice applicants got them.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

I hope those 2 that dropped 18 on a giveaway draw got what they were after!

LOL, a couple guys made a severe miscalculation.

 

[Shō[t]gun]

I thought about that, but the draw report is dated May 19, which was ≈2 weeks before the results were published, so there wouldn't have been any opportunity to return/fail to pay.

Hmmm, good find.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Super weird… I wonder what their explanation would be?

 

[cnelk]

Did you look at the Leftover Drawing odds to compare?

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Did you look at the Leftover Drawing odds to compare?

101 of these tags were awarded during the secondary draw.

 

[cnelk]

I thought about that, but the draw report is dated May 19, which was ≈2 weeks before the results were published, so there wouldn't have been any opportunity to return/fail to pay.

I think there may be a delay in the charging of a credit card and the reporting.

Most CC companies have a cutoff of charges about the middle of the month.

That charge will hit before the reporting.

I believe it’s CC related

This is all just a guess though

 

[Jethro]

Very interesting find @Mighty Mouse . I've got no explanation. Some legit ideas posted above, but doesn't seem right. That draw report is a snapshot immediately after the draw is complete. Which is 2 weeks before CC hits and notifying successful applicants. That report is a full month before the payment final deadline.

 

[cnelk]

Send this question to AskCWP. Theyre pretty helpful

Ask Colorado Parks and Wildlife

cpw.state.co.us

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Send this question to AskCWP. Theyre pretty helpful

Ask Colorado Parks and Wildlife

cpw.state.co.us

Just sent them an email. I'll update here if/when they reply.

My best guess is that this anomaly is somehow related to the tag reductions prompted by the 2022-2023 winter kill. This tag was in the designated "severe winter zone" and its quota was reduced by 30%. The quota reduction was officially announced after applications were due but before results were released. Maybe CPW allowed folks to modify/withdraw their applications after the normal deadline given how steeply the quota was reduced? Or maybe some folks saw the writing on the wall and changed their 1st choice during the normal timeframe but still showed up in the report as 1st choice applicants?

 

[5MilesBack]

If you look around the stats enough, you'll see this kind of stuff a lot. Lots of units with people drawing with less points than others with more points. I used to think that maybe it was folks making mistakes on the applications, but with the online system it won't let you go forward if you make a mistake. And then my buddy didn't draw a tag a few years ago with 7 points, even though several folks with 6 drew. He even had his confirmation application email stating exactly what he had applied for and it was all correct. He should have called them to find out how that happens, but I don't think he did.

I also know that CPW doesn't always do what they say they do. They say that for any 5 point resident tags returned, they will call the next 5 applicants in line, and then put the tag on the reissue list if none of them take it. Well, when my daughter got her elk tag through that process there were 13 resident applicants above her that didn't draw with 1 more point than she had. I told the guy that, and he said "I've called a LOT of folks to get rid of this tag". I just couldn't believe that that many people didn't want a 6-7 point resident tag. Maybe most folks need several months to prepare for a hunt, and a weeks notice is too short. Don't know.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Mystery solved. See CPW's response below. What we're seeing is an artifact of groups applying for a mix of bull and cow tags, which is allowed if the species/season/unit/land type are the same (news to me). In 2023, this cow tag was harder to draw than the corresponding bull tag. Historically this cow tag drew out at 2nd choice or later, but the 2023 cow tag quota was reduced by 90% and drew out 7-8% at 0 points. So presumably quite a few 0 point groups put in for a mix of bull and cow tags, and the group failed to draw because there weren't enough cow tags. Bull tag applicants in those groups show up in the report as unsuccessful, but they were actually unsuccessful due to lack of cow tags (not bull tags).

"This hunt code is very popular with groups and when applicants apply as a group, not everyone in the group wants to draw a bull license, so group member applications do have the ability to enter the hunt code for a cow elk license . . . If you look at the draw statistics for [the corresponding cow] hunt code . . . you can see that this hunt code draws out as a first choice. While it does not take any preference points to draw, there is less than a 10% chance of a resident and nonresident adult drawing this license with zero preference points. One of the rules for group applications is that if not everyone in the group can be awarded a license, then no one in the group will be awarded a license. Hence we will see individuals who applied for the bull license that should have drawn but did not.

However, your understanding of the draw is correct. Everyone who has a hunt code as their first choice should be awarded the license before anyone being awarded the license as a second, third, or fourth choice. There can also be a very small number of applicants who have application errors or have failed to pay for their big game applications."

Bull and cow tag draw results attached for the sake of completeness.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

@WiscoHoundsman you were right. This oddity was due to party applications, specifically parties that applied for a mix of bull and cow tags.

 

[Jethro]

Thanks MM, good to have the answer.

 

[Shō[t]gun]

Thanks for the update. I thought about group applicants too, but with third-choice successful applicants didn’t think that was feasible. Good to know the cow/bull mix is an option tho.