Colorado archery vs muzzy

[Dos Perros]

I currently have a few Colorado elk preference points as a non-resident. I'd love to continue to build points and eventually hunt a unit I've hunted before, but it takes a few points more than I have now, and I think creep will have it out of reach for longer than it appears now. So I wanted to consider some lower to middle points options, see where the value is, and compare archery vs muzzleloader.

Questions I asked:

• Are muzzy success rates any better than archery success rates for the same unit(s)?
• Do success rates increase for higher points unit(s)?
• If I wanted to maximize elk taken over time, what is the most effective application strategy?

I used GoHunt data, did some filtering for my criteria (trophy minimum, public land percentage, culled super low odds units, etc), and did some number crunching.

As you may expect, considering the same unit or groups of units, muzzy success rates tend to be higher than archery success rates. Generally, they are about 10% higher (that's the "+10.0" in the equation on the chart), meaning if archery has a 20% success rate, then muzzy has a 30% success rate. There are only a couple units where muzzy is basically the same as archery.



Next, I wanted to know if waiting to draw a more exclusive unit would yield higher success rates. It turns out the answer to that question is also yes for both archery and muzzy hunts (both orange and blue lines go up). For the same points, one could draw a higher success rate muzzy hunt than archery (the orange line is higher than the blue line).



Lastly, understanding muzzy hunts are generally more successful, that more points equals higher success, what is the optimum application strategy? Hunt more often with lower success rates, or wait and hunt less often with higher rates? I calculate a 'years per elk' for each hunt. I take points required+1, and divide by the success rate. So if I can draw a tag every 5 years, with a 30% success rate, it would take me about 5/0.3 = 16.7 years to kill an elk. As you can see, the optimum strategy is to hunt often.



I kinda have some deeper questions, but I'm going to let you guys chew on this a bit.

 

[Acorn]

I love your data-driven approach. One perspective I’ll add is that success rates are general, not specific to an individual. It would be difficult to impossible to quantify, but the more that someone can hunt the same unit, the higher their success rate will be due to gaining insight on the unit like animal behavior trends, road systems, terrain, and access.

Thus, there is a compounding effect to success rates in hunting lower PP units. The tradeoff is that this benefit requires commitment to one area over time.

 

[Coveyleader]

Success rate part is based on the individual. If a guy can get it done with archery, but decides “this year I’ll use a ML/gun” I’d say the elk are in trouble. Big difference in all ways shapes and forms between the two weapons. 75-100 yds from a bull is easy to get to and I’d think would be a very dead elk with a ML. Still a long ways out for archery. If you know how to hunt elk, I can’t see how a ML wouldn’t t be a higher success rate weapon. After all, it’s a rifle.


The other stuff I’ll let the stat geeks comment on.

 

[Dos Perros]

You guys are sort of hinting at what I was getting to next. I've been almost exclusively an archery elk hunter. And out of my 11 archery elk hunts I've killed 4 bulls, and I think if I had been hunting with a muzzy instead the number would be 9. So, are the muzzy hunters rifle hunters that want to hunt in September, or are they archery hunters that want to improve their odds of success? Obviously there isn't one answer, it's a mix, but I'm starting to think it's mostly the former, otherwise the success rate delta would be much higher (mine would go from 36% to 82%, for example). Therefore I think a muzzleloader in my hands would be pretty damn deadly, assuming I could get the damn thing to work.

 

[MallardSX2]

If you let me hunt with an inline muzzleloader where I typically hunt with my bow you better heat up the grill......I'll be back with backstraps shortly.

 

[Coveyleader]

So, are the muzzy hunters rifle hunters that want to hunt in September, or are they archery hunters that want to improve their odds of success?

Its a bit of both. I can tell you (I've said it before) that I have direct experience with a pretty big group from Kentucky that hunted our OTC spot year after year. Their success rate was around 33% on most years. The reality was, 2-3 guys from their group of 6 or 7 would arrow, or kill a bull most years. The same guys in camp would talk about the elk they saw, but couldn't get close to. Then...... Then, they started saving points and low and behold those guys that never killed drew ML tags for the same OTC unit. They started stacking them up and now, its more common to see them there with MLs than a bow these days. As a matter of fact, I avoid the area when they're there with guns as they will do some damage on the bulls.

ML season dates in CO are as good as they get for rutting bulls. My experiences in several units says there is a huge difference before ML season, and the same unit after. Sure you see the causal road rider guys, but serious hunters with a ML in hand will cook your unit quickly if you happen to be hunting the same areas and that can't be disputed.

 

[Lil-Rokslider]

So, are the muzzy hunters rifle hunters that want to hunt in September, or are they archery hunters that want to improve their odds of success?

It's the first one, for the most part. I archery hunt Colorado almost every year, and the muzzy hunters I run into seem like they have no idea how to hunt elk in the rut.

One year, I was Hiking through the timber about 100 yards from a well traveled trail, and walked right past a couple of muzzy hunters sitting under a big pine with camo painted faces, long sleeve camo, camo gloves, camo guns, etc.....
I said "Oh sorry, didn't know you guys were here, sorry for walking through your spot and blowing it up with human scent. How's the hunting?"

They shushed me and waved me off. About 10 hours later, on my way back to camp, I walked past the tree again thinking that surely they had moved. They were still there. I waved and kept going. Next morning, same story.

I finally decided to take a different route to and from camp, but for all I know they sat under the same pine, 100 yards off the trail for the entire hunt.

 

[Dos Perros]

My experiences in several units says there is a huge difference before ML season, and the same unit after.

This has been my experience as well, but n=2.