Burn or hold? 8 co elk points

Been around too long for that, I'll deep dive the lovely Colorado statistics page on my own!

Just curious on others thought process. If I had 3 less points it's a no brainer to burn, just contemplating how many folks ahead of me are going to cut bait in the next 2 years and what effect that will have.

Burn em. Almost nowhere in the world of western hunting does waiting confer a benefit
 
Everyone will be cutting bait. You have to pick a first choice unit starting in 2028. Points will be getting used
To be fair this just means odds in the NW units will go even farther in the toilet as everyone puts them as first pick if they are just wanting a point.
 
I don’t know how anyone can really answer this for someone else.
It depends on what else you have and can line up, do you have other points and places you can draw? Do you have access to a good ranch in place of public land maybe? Any plans or chance to buy a LO tag someplace ect….so it depends on you.
I would burn 8 points in CO on something i could draw with 1 or 2 if i had the right place lined up to hunt.
 
Been around too long for that, I'll deep dive the lovely Colorado statistics page on my own!

Just curious on others thought process. If I had 3 less points it's a no brainer to burn, just contemplating how many folks ahead of me are going to cut bait in the next 2 years and what effect that will have.
That’s interesting because I feel the less points you have, the less need to use them. Less invested, wait and see how it all shakes out.

That said, I have 8 points, and if I still lived in PA, I would use them before 2028. But it’s a known unit to me, hunted it few times before and have known for few years I can draw it again. I’m holding on to them though.

I did use my deer points this year. A hunt we’ve been watching for a long time with very few NR tags. Wanted to use points before their worth was halved. But that was almost 20 points.
 
I’d burn them. Unless you get super lucky with a top 5% tag you’re not really going to miss anything.
You said you hunt Idaho and Wyoming currently. Plenty of general hunts in Idaho, and the Wyoming general tag, are better than 5-10 point CO hunts. If you compare hunter numbers, success rates, bull size, bull to cow ratios, etc… many of the Colorado units leave a lot to be desired if you compare them hunt to hunt.
 
I'd keep them and try and get a random tag in a good unit in 2028, not the best ones. You'll have 9 or 10 chances in the random draw. That's my plan.

Is this for sure how the random draw will playout in '28 and beyond? The total number of PP's a hunter has is the number of entries they'll have in the random draw for any limited unit?
 
Might as well just hold onto them. Nothing says you have to use them in ‘28 either. If I had that many points I’d hold and wait for the dust to settle. It’s hard to say anything right now because no one has actually seen how this is going to go. Everyone is making assumptions but personally I’d hold on to them especially if you have a consistent place to hunt in other states. Don’t sell yourself short for a lesser tag just due to speculation of what MAY come to be. I’m no expect but that’s what I would do in your position. It’s going to be very case by case for each individual. Just do what feels right to you.
 
9 pts won’t put you in a much better spot as a NR. If it were me I’d burn em on the best unit you can find in that range.


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Nothing wrong with holding and waiting to get lucky for a good unit if you have other hunts lined up in Wyo and Idaho.
I have 21 NR elk points in CO and I'm holding them. Let the storm pass and play the game a little different. I'm in no man's land anyway for a prime unit.

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Is this for sure how the random draw will playout in '28 and beyond? The total number of PP's a hunter has is the number of entries they'll have in the random draw for any limited unit?
This is what I was told by two different guys from Colorado. So I am planning on it but not sure. If its not then my plans will change.
 
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