BLM grazing rules up for comment

[icampbell87]

If wolves improve habitats due to pushing ungulates off of sensitive areas that would grow back healthier , it stands to reason that less (invasive) cattle would be good for the land, as well.

 

[jkoehle1]

Yes, it still is.

That national headcount factors all live cattle. Dairy cows, dairy bulls, dairy calves, beef steers and sterile heifers already in feed lots, etc. It is not an accurate representation of the beef market.

The national beef cow headcount as of Jan. 1, 2026 per the USDA, is around 27.6 million. That is mother cows of a breed meant for beef production. This is the important number for two reasons. It is the number of animals continuing to reproduce year after year and it almost exclusively the category of animals that ranches are turning out during the summer months on these BLM permits.

Of those 27.6 million, the 11 western states are home to ~5.5-6 million

From what I could find, there are 12.6 million total active AUMs. That is enough to support 3.2-4.2 million cow/calf pairs for a 3-4 month grazing window. This is the most common use window. For the sake of this conversation we will stick to that, although it is highly likely the number is higher as some ranches will run more cows for a shorter period of time, still equating to the same total of AUMs.

But again we will call it between 58% and 76% of that 5.5 million are utilizing some public land at some point. That is 13-15% of the national total of mother beef cows. These are the cattle that are producing the calves year after year that are sent to feed lots to be butchered. Which means that 13-15% of the national beef calf crop are also utilizing these public lands.

And I understand that some people will still view that as an insignificant percentage but it is absolutely not. Especially if you don’t like eating Holstein and Jersey ribeyes.

United States cattle inventory down slightly

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Information. NASS publications cover a wide range of subjects, from traditional crops, such as corn and wheat, to specialties, such as mushrooms and flowers; from calves born to hogs slaughtered; from agricultural prices to land in farms. The agency...

www.nass.usda.gov

27.6 million x 12 months = 331.2 million AUM annually.

Seems like 3-4 million AUM represents about 1% of all cattle grazing - from your numbers.

If you tripled it - or quadrupled it - youre still in single digits.

 

[WRO]

27.6 million x 12 months = 331.2 million AUM annually.

Seems like 3-4 million AUM represents about 1% of all cattle grazing - from your numbers.

If you tripled it - or quadrupled it - youre still in single digits.

Most allotments are seasonal so it’s probably 2%


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[MTBackroads]

Just put bison herds where the feral horses range.

 

[cwitt]

27.6 million x 12 months = 331.2 million AUM annually.

Seems like 3-4 million AUM represents about 1% of all cattle grazing - from your numbers.

If you tripled it - or quadrupled it - youre still in single digits.

At risk of sounding rude, you have no understanding of what we are talking about here.

An AUM is an Animal Unit Month. It’s a metric used by the BLM to determine the amount of forage in a given area required to support one mother cow and her calf. That number is then used to determine the number of animals a given allotment can support. For easy math, say the BLM determines an allotment has 12 AUMs. That means the rancher with that permit can use it to graze 1 cows for 12 months. Or it could support 3 cows for 4 months, 4 cows for 3 months, 6 cows for 2 months, and so on.

It is NOT a metric that can be transposed on the national beef headcount because it has no meaning anywhere outside of its use in the context of these permits.

I will entertain you and explain the scenario where the number you just created would have some meaning. It would be if by some reason, every single acre of privately owned pasture, hay ground, farmland, etc. nationwide that is used to feed cattle suddenly became owned by the government. And then all that farmland used to produce cattle feed like corn, oats, alfalfa, etc across the country was no longer used as a food source and was converted to pasture where it was only to be used to graze. Then they turned that land over to BLM management. The BLM would then turn all that land into separate allotments and determine the number of AUMs each allotment has. In that scenario, the number you just arrived at is the AUMs the nations ranchers would need in order to feed our current number of cows year round with nothing but grazing.

I acknowledge I am being a smartass but do you get what I’m saying? You can’t use that math to determine the total amount of cattle grazing nationwide because for everywhere outside the context of public land grazing, AUMs don’t apply.

 

[cwitt]

While interesting, Less than 3% of ranchers hold allotments. There’s no basis for your numbers. If you go to the coastal areas, the land if much more productive than the arid west with little interaction with public lands.

Plus a lot of ranches choose not to use public beyond in holdings as a general rule due to high costs for gather etc.

I think your location skews your perception of reality.

Sure, that is 3% of ranchers nationally. Nationally, the average cow herd has 47 animals. Nationally 79% of ranchers have less than head of 50 cattle. 55% have less than 20. Operations with over 100 make up around 10% of all ranchers, yet own over 60% of the inventory. This is the category of the operations running on these permits in the west. So, sure it’s only 3% but that 3% represents a hell of a lot more than 3% of the cattle. That’s why, as Ive said, there are biases and nuances to these statistics that you continue to bring up. I’m over trying to get that across.

Once again, the numbers I referenced are per the USDA.

Here is another statistic for you. If you remove the 11 western states we have been discussing, over 90% of the remaining land in this country is privately owned. The reason producers in those states don’t have allotments is because there aren’t any. If they were available, they would use them too.

The basis for my numbers is all readily available on the internet if you’re willing to dig deeper than what articles like this are trying to tell you. Read the sources that other guy provided. They say the same thing I am. Maybe, just maybe, even consider the input of somebody who lives in this world.

Which brings me to your final comment. You’re insinuating because I live in an area where I have direct, first hand knowledge and interaction with this very system we are discussing, that I somehow have a “skewed perception of reality”. The people with a skewed perception of reality are the people who have absolutely no idea how the beef industry operates, how these permits work, or what public land grazing actually looks like in practice. Instead they choose to ignore those who do know in favor of believing articles, written with bias, that serve their own self interest. That’s not being realistic.

And I am no longer interested in engaging with those sort of people. I have explained how this system works, I have given verifiable numbers as to why it’s important, and I have explained why the figures in the sources you’ve tried to use are misleading. If you are so set on what you believe that you’re unwilling to acknowledge my perspective then by all means make your voice heard. But watch what happens when we begin to losing ability to our utilize public lands. It will not stop with grazing. As hunters we always have been our own worst enemy. This is just one more instance and it’s unbelievably frustrating to me.

 

[jkoehle1]

At risk of sounding rude, you have no understanding of what we are talking about here.

I know what an AUM is.

Instead they choose to ignore those who do know in favor of believing articles, written with bias, that serve their own self interest. That’s not being realistic.

Are you sure you are referring to the right group here?

 

[jkoehle1]

Certainly many foreign policy ideas have driven prices up more than the BLM reducing a nominal amount of AUMs for beef production for private bison grazing. I wonder how many horses (not just feral) graze on leased AUMs - comically way more than bison.

I understand and have empathy for the fact that its a real risk that APR will take more land out of ag production. What i dont understand - montana stockgrowers and others have selective outrage about losing ag production. If a rich jackass bought the place and intended to use it as a hunting property and saw the ag production as useless tax dodging side quest, theyd cheer him on and try to get him special elk tags carved out in the legislature.