Are we headed for another 2008?

[BuzzH]

I have lots of points in lots of states...maybe I can actually draw some tags due to this looming doomsday, 1929esk, nonsense on display.

My common sense tells me I'll not see a 1 percent increase in draw odds in the next 20 years.

Carry on, just don't start the next depression without me.

 

[Dos Perros]

I think the demand is partially artificial.

That's fine, and I do agree (Kansas City / where I live / is one of the hottest outside investor/speculator markets right now). But the inventory is SO LOW. Even if the investors get out of it there isn't enough supply for real folks.

 

[WeiserBucks]

I read an article the other day that a county near me had a median home price of $565k and a median income of $34k. Doesn't pencil out to me.

 

[Roosterstraw]

While the US gdp is dropping and China’s gdp is growing, couple that with once China becomes the largest economy in the world within a few years and the world economy is no longer based on the US dollar, a recession will be the least of our problems.

 

[lab-roamer]

It's not just the farmers getting hammered by inflation. My small business has seen everything increase from 50% all the way to 500%. The price of diesel will sink the ship IMO.
As far as 2008, I watched some people lose everything to the repo man, and watched others double their portfolios for pennies on the dollar. I would love to build another garage for the price I did in 2009. OSB was $4.95 a sheet, $2 2x6's.........

 

[FLATHEAD]

Rapidly becoming a save yourself situation.
Those most dependent on the Govt. will be the worse off.
I just bought some pole beans,,,so I'm good.

 

[cod007]

Back in the 2003-2006 era, I used to get 20-25 real estate notifications a day out of the greater Phoenix area. Homes for sale for pennies on the dollar. Very nice 3 and 4 bedroom homes could be had for $35 to $49k every day of the week.
For under $100k you could have had a magnificent place. I wish I would have jumped on at least one of them back then. Unfortunately I had just reached in to my retirement money to purchase a fixer upper where I was living.
Those same $50k homes must have quadrupled in price now.

 

[CorbLand]

Back in the 2003-2006 era, I used to get 20-25 real estate notifications a day out of the greater Phoenix area. Homes for sale for pennies on the dollar. Very nice 3 and 4 bedroom homes could be had for $35 to $49k every day of the week.
For under $100k you could have had a magnificent place. I wish I would have jumped on at least one of them back then. Unfortunately I had just reached in to my retirement money to purchase a fixer upper where I was living.
Those same $50k homes must have quadrupled in price now.

I dont know what the word for 10X is but that would probably be a better guess to what they are going for.

 

[svivian]

They say it takes a good investor three recessions to become very wealthy....

 

[Stubborn_bowhunter]

I read an article the other day that a county near me had a median home price of $565k and a median income of $34k. Doesn't pencil out to me.

A lot of people that don't even live in the counties/state buy land as investments/vacation homes then it makes the other people either have to pay them insane rent, or move.

It's really unfortunate.
I live in a town that's hiring like crazy, and no one can afford to live here anymore. People have no choice, but to pay insane money for things. Then it pushes out everyone else. A lot of people who grow up here are forced to move.

 

[HornPorn]

Home prices will crater once the cheap money decimates the zombie companies. Once the chickens come home to roost in cooperate America, there will be massive layoffs. We'll see how much home demand there will be then. It'll avalanche from there into crashing home values and inability to refinance (again).

Real estate is getting bought with cash. That's why despite rising interest rates, sales prices have not come down. These people are writing checks. As an example, some close friends bought a condo two weeks ago in SW Florida....their offer was 1 of 12, all were cash offers, all above asking price. The only difference were contingencies.

What you are describing is what 2008 was all about. Totally different situation now.

 

[ozyclint]

With the government ballooning of money supply theses past few years and certain international powers edging away from the USD in trade agreements, I believe we are getting closer to the USD‘s privileged status being finished. The fed has little else left to try and keep this fiat system farce going much longer. I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet, Tough days ahead I’m afraid.

They might want fiat to fail.
"Ok, everyone we're going to use this CBDC (central bank digital currency) now and you all have to be on it. We won't use it to control every aspect of you lives. Promise."

 

[darcytribe]

They might want fiat to fail.
"Ok, everyone we're going to use this CBDC (central bank digital currency) now and you all have to be on it. We won't use it to control every aspect of you lives. Promise."

Yes, seems like controlled destruction at this point. What rises from the ashes is anyone’s guess.

 

[Wrench]

I hope it makes 08' look like a bachelor party. I'm paid off on everything and have cash itching to buy the stuff other's were financing.

I learned my lesson in 08....I'm ready for it now.

 

[peterk123]

That's fine, and I do agree (Kansas City / where I live / is one of the hottest outside investor/speculator markets right now). But the inventory is SO LOW. Even if the investors get out of it there isn't enough supply for real folks.

There is truth to that statement. I don't think developers, specifically the smaller ones, ever fully recovered from the 2008 mess. And those that did are probably taking a more cautious approach. Build less and charge more!

 

[IdahoElk]

Well Biden did run on "Build Back Better" So they are systematically imploding the country to build it back, the better part is up for discussion.
The only thing stopping us from being a Venezuela is the daily cash infusions the Fed is providing to keep this dog and pony show going,
Are there areas doing better than others? Sure but when one eventually collapses we all are going.
Hope I'm wrong

 

[Yoder]

With all the $50k rigs on the road, I'm betting yes. Nobody lives within their means. I am looking forward to getting a new truck for $20k after they default on their loans. Maybe a camper too.

 

[sasquatch]

With all the $50k rigs on the road, I'm betting yes. Nobody lives within their means. I am looking forward to getting a new truck for $20k after they default on their loans. Maybe a camper too.

They live by monthly affordability, not price tags.

Can’t afford the truck? Extend the loan by a year or two. Can’t afford that purchase? Do it in 4 easy payments.

I believe the 40 yr mortgage is just around the corner to keep the van moving along.

People are financially illiterate like never before.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[arock]

God I hope the housing market crashes!!! I might finally by able to afford a home in Colorado.

Lol - we looked this past year and it was a nightmare.

 

[arock]

my wife and i started IRA this year, and i'm going to be patient to put it anywhere... i think now is the wrong time.... kinda want to shut down toy buying for a bit (to some extent ) and put that money aside to invest when this mess bottoms out..... try to make the economy bottoming out a net positive for the future.

i'm not looking forward to what things look like when the dust settles, but we are all going to be going through it together..... doesn't do much good feeling sorry for ourselves, because it sucks for everyone.... for some reason, there is some comfort in that concept.

Eh, buying when high - buying when low. It all kind of balances out I think. I'm certainly not qualified to offer an opinion - but that won't stop me.

I think you get in the market when you can regardless of how high or low it is. In the grand scheme of things, regardless of the imminent doom and gloom - you're still going to see a return in the market assuming you have a balanced portfolio - that won't be matched by any other investment over a 10 year period.