All Time High Stock Market

[Beendare]

The Market is up….So the world is great, right?

I left about 1/3rd in the markets in broad based etf’s and the rest in short term bonds paying about 5%.
I thought about selling all stock holding but didn’t…no particular insights, just total luck.

I don’t see how we will not see a recession in RE in the upcoming years.…but with all of the low mortgages out there…it will be a slow grind…not total capitulation like in 2008.

best advice; sell any losers stocks you have to capture the loss before year end.

 

[Hnthrdr]

The Market is up….So the world is great, right?

I left about 1/3rd in the markets in broad based etf’s and the rest in short term bonds paying about 5%.
I thought about selling all stock holding but didn’t…no particular insights, just total luck.

I don’t see how we will not see a recession in RE in the upcoming years.…but with all of the low mortgages out there…it will be a slow grind…not total capitulation like in 2008.

best advice; sell any losers stocks you have to capture the loss before year end.

RE market prices still blow my mind. We are definitely not set up for a 08 style hit, but at somepoint prices have to come down? Maybe? There is still such little inventory and so much demand. It’s nuts out here I live in a suburb of Denver, a developer is building 44 spec homes down the street from me on top of each other price starts at 2.3 mil… who the heck is buying these things?!

 

[CorbLand]

RE market prices still blow my mind. We are definitely not set up for a 08 style hit, but at somepoint prices have to come down? Maybe? There is still such little inventory and so much demand. It’s nuts out here I live in a suburb of Denver, a developer is building 44 spec homes down the street from me on top of each other price starts at 2.3 mil… who the heck is buying these things?!

I was listening to some old guys talking at work yesterday. He was probably mid to late 50s and was saying how the first house he bought was 93000. His dad told him how stupid he was for buying it. That same house is probably worth somewhere around 350000 today and has to be at least 35 years old but based on the area it is and that it was not new when he bought it, I would place bets on it being double that in age.

RE is already starting to come down but I dont know that its going to come down significantly. Anyone that bought 5 years ago got a massive raise when they refinanced and anyone that bought 2 years ago is struggling. People arent going to want to give up the 2.5-3% interest rate so they will either turn their current house into a rental or just not sell. Interesting times and its going to be "fun" to watch.

 

[william schmaltz]

I think we see 40-50 year mortgages in the next ten years. No one will do the math on them, but the lower perceived payment will allow the RE market to keep on chugging.

The accidental landlord situation that’s popped up last few years is definitely not talked about enough. My neighbor two doors down just left the state, he opted to rent instead of sell because his low rate and high rent. It rented out with a couple of weeks.

Unless rates drop significantly, we plan to do the same if we buy another house in next 2-3 years. Going rent is more than $1k above our mortgage. Or we would only have to rent it on average 5 days a month on Air BNB to make the same. Which 10-15 days a month would likely be no problem.

 

[Beendare]

RE market prices still blow my mind. We are definitely not set up for a 08 style hit, but at somepoint prices have to come down? Maybe? There is still such little inventory and so much demand. It’s nuts out here I live in a suburb of Denver, a developer is building 44 spec homes down the street from me on top of each other price starts at 2.3 mil… who the heck is buying these things?!

I'm talking about the overall RE market.

There is still a big migration....and there will still be demand for areas like Idaho, parts of Utah, Texas and Colorado. I doubt the prices in Idaho will back off a lot- just a slow down in sales.

Think about it- the gov injected something like $6 trillion into the economy during Covid...thats going to take awhile to work through the system. There are more folks trading options than ever before. I see the stats and cannot imagine that ending well.

 

[Hnthrdr]

I'm talking about the overall RE market.

There is still a big migration....and there will still be demand for areas like Idaho, parts of Utah, Texas and Colorado. I doubt the prices in Idaho will back off a lot- just a slow down in sales.

Think about it- the gov injected something like $6 trillion into the economy during Covid...thats going to take awhile to work through the system. There are more folks trading options than ever before. I see the stats and cannot imagine that ending well.

For sure, RE can be far more regional/ localized. and some areas are un phased with broader upsets. Yeah the amount of money that got dumped into the economy during the rona years was nuts, I sort of predict that the fed will cut rates too soon, ie next year since it is an election year and we will see the inflation monster roar back to life, especially in the RE markets

 

[Dos Perros]

Mine just surpassed the all time high from January of '22, just took 24 months to get there...
View attachment 641866

I think @wind gypsy is saying that although the nominal value is now higher, the actual value (buying power) is still currently lower because of inflation.

 

[Rich M]

I paid 8.25% when I bought my house in 2000. Amazing how many folks forget (or never knew) that interest rates used to be considerably higher than they are now.

 

[aftriathlete]

No one saw this Fed pivot coming yesterday, Wall Street was legitimately shocked by it. Anyone who says they expected it is lying, hindsight is always 20/20. If the Fed hadn't completely, 100% capitulated to election year politics this week the base case for everyone -- all hedge funds, major financials -- was recession in early 2024. Now, who knows.

 

[2531usmc]

the market is going up because the govt is flooding the country with money coming off a printing press. we’re adding a trillion dollars of debt every three or four months.

40% of all federal taxes are spent on debt interest

this is totally unsustainable and the wreckage will fall on our children and grandchildren’s back

 

[Hnthrdr]

the market is going up because the govt is flooding the country with money coming off a printing press. we’re adding a trillion dollars of debt every three or four months.

40% of all federal taxes are spent on debt interest

this is totally unsustainable and the wreckage will fall on our children and grandchildren’s back

I don’t understand how it doesn’t fall much sooner, like in the next 5 years… I try not to think about how fiat our currency is… then again pretty much every other currency in the world is… which is everyone else being too deep to pull out of this mega Ponzi scheme is the only thing keeping it going I would guess…

 

[Customweld]

I was listening to some old guys talking at work yesterday. He was probably mid to late 50s and was saying how the first house he bought was 93000. His dad told him how stupid he was for buying it. That same house is probably worth somewhere around 350000 today and has to be at least 35 years old but based on the area it is and that it was not new when he bought it, I would place bets on it being double that in age.

RE is already starting to come down but I dont know that its going to come down significantly. Anyone that bought 5 years ago got a massive raise when they refinanced and anyone that bought 2 years ago is struggling. People arent going to want to give up the 2.5-3% interest rate so they will either turn their current house into a rental or just not sell. Interesting times and its going to be "fun" to watch.

Wait a minute... Old guys? mid to late 50's?! .

 

[CorbLand]

Wait a minute... Old guys? mid to late 50's?! .

I consider anyone that is older than me to be an old guy so when you are 20 to 25 years older than me, your an old fart.

Sorry fellers, I dont make the rules.

 

[Q child]

I do not understand the economy. Or stocks. Or currency. Not even a little. I also have this mental block when someone tries to explain it to me, they always seem like they're full of sh*t.

 

[Rich M]

Right now the market is not following any of the rules we were taught.

 

[Tahoe1305]

Let’s go further than predictions, who has a ticker or two they are feeling good about recession or not? I’m trading flat across the board from last year to now. But looking to find some rising stars for the coming year. The past three years has been a huge learning curve for me. Tech and pharmaceutical has been my niche as of late.

S&P 500 ticker….~+25% YTD. I’ve played the game of individual stocks….this just works and makes money. Feel like some famous rich people say the same (not that I am either).

 

[Tahoe1305]

We are not quite back up to Nov 2021 levels, and much of the disruptive/Covid/Cathie Wood stocks are still down 70-80% from then as well, so I doubt many people are seeing "all time high's" in their portfolios. It's good to see green though. 30 years from now this will all be a blip on the radar, and look like a smoking deal.

Within 1-2% I think….pretty darn close.

 

[CorbLand]

Right now the market is not following any of the rules we were taught.

Right now, nothing in life is following what we were taught.

 

[Throwin Darts]

No one saw this Fed pivot coming yesterday, Wall Street was legitimately shocked by it. Anyone who says they expected it is lying, hindsight is always 20/20. If the Fed hadn't completely, 100% capitulated to election year politics this week the base case for everyone -- all hedge funds, major financials -- was recession in early 2024. Now, who knows.

You’re kidding right? No one besides the forward swaps market, economists, anyone who can read a jobs or inflation report, saw this coming

It was gonna happen. The only question was how soon.

 

[aftriathlete]

You’re kidding right? No one besides the forward swaps market, economists, anyone who can read a jobs or inflation report, saw this coming

It was gonna happen. The only question was how soon.

Enter the hindsight quarterbacks.

No. Not kidding. You can read the headlines yesterday and today that say exactly what I said. Not to mention the insane reaction in all indexes, precious metals, dollar index, and the bond market due to, you guessed it, totally unexpected news from the Fed.