akhunter3
FNG
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2024
- Messages
- 63
nothing per usual
Alaska draw. What’s my chances?
- Thread starter Trapyotes
- Start date
David Gough
WKR
Going back to SE AK for black bear.
Hunter26
Lil-Rokslider
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2017
- Messages
- 257
Another strike out. Maybe next year!
FranklinBluth
Lil-Rokslider
Drew the Turnagain moose tag. Looking forward to that.
solostalker
Lil-Rokslider
POW Black Bear!
also on the actual odds. plug the numbers into chatgpt with the details of the draw (applications, available tags, how many applications you have and the draw process).
The draw can be calculated using a the Hypergeometric Formula. Its different than simple probability because 1) you as an applicant have more than one ticket in the hat and 2) there are more than 1 prizes to win.
I have confirmed with a numbers person much smarter than me that this is legit. The draw odds on GoHunt are calulated assuming that you only submit 1 application not 6. the numbers I have worked up are much different; and in a good way.
also on the actual odds. plug the numbers into chatgpt with the details of the draw (applications, available tags, how many applications you have and the draw process).
The draw can be calculated using a the Hypergeometric Formula. Its different than simple probability because 1) you as an applicant have more than one ticket in the hat and 2) there are more than 1 prizes to win.
I have confirmed with a numbers person much smarter than me that this is legit. The draw odds on GoHunt are calulated assuming that you only submit 1 application not 6. the numbers I have worked up are much different; and in a good way.
akhunter3
FNG
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2024
- Messages
- 63
That should be fun; had a neighbor fill that years back sounds like a great tag
FranklinBluth
Lil-Rokslider
Another example (not to beat a dead horse):
There are 6 tags available to hunt "mythical species A". If 6 hunters each put in 6 applications for that tag, fish and game would list the odds of drawing as 6/36 or 16.6%. However, 100% of the hunters would draw in this instance.
There are 6 tags available to hunt "mythical species A". If 6 hunters each put in 6 applications for that tag, fish and game would list the odds of drawing as 6/36 or 16.6%. However, 100% of the hunters would draw in this instance.
