Alaska draw. What’s my chances?

[Trapyotes]

Tomorrow will decide the Alaska draw permits. What’s my chances of drawing a dc590 caribou tag for #14?

 

[william schmaltz]

Previous year draw odds are published in the back of the supplement booklet. 10,000+ applicants for 100 tags……..I’d say not great. But someone has to draw em!

Edit: according to the same supplement, available tags for this year’s draw were dropped to 50. So even less great.

 

[Legend]

Previous year draw odds are published in the back of the supplement booklet. 10,000+ applicants for 100 tags……..I’d say not great. But someone has to draw em!

Edit: according to the same supplement, available tags for this year’s draw were dropped to 50. So even less great.

View attachment 842603

Can you confirm how AK builds this table? Since each person can have 6 choices does this table show the number of choices (wrong terminology). So best case scenario there may be 10217/6 number of individual people.

Is that accurate?

 

[william schmaltz]

That’s a mystery I’ve always wondered myself and can never seem to find the answer.

Even if it’s total choices and not individuals and 49 people that each put in 6 times are removed from the pot. That only removes about 300 from the 10k+. So your odds are 6/10000 as opposed to 1/10250. Either way it requires a very high amount of luck.

It also only shows the odds that played out in 2024. Applicants for this particular tag were less than 6k a couple years ago. Around 4k 3 years ago. There could be 12k+ applicants in this year’s draw. Or there could be less. We won’t know until next October.

 

[Trapyotes]

Interesting. So is it 10k applicators or ~6 x 10k. There’s some fancy math but I’m filling lucky

 

[Legend]

That’s a mystery I’ve always wondered myself and can never seem to find the answer.

Even if it’s total choices and not individuals and 49 people that each put in 6 times are removed from the pot. That only removes about 300 from the 10k+. So your odds are 6/10000 as opposed to 1/10250. Either way it requires a very high amount of luck.

It also only shows the odds that played out in 2024. Applicants for this particular tag were less than 6k a couple years ago. Around 4k 3 years ago. There could be 12k+ applicants in this year’s draw. Or there could be less. We won’t know until next October.

Bummer I thought you would have the answer to this one. I have tried to talk with AK game and fish but not sure the person new much...definitely less than I knew.

I am no statistician but I think in your example the math would be closer to 1/10000,1/10000,1/10000,1/10000,1/10000 and 1/10000. Since each application would stand alone. So a fair bit worse!!

But someone has to win.

 

[Yukon Cornelius]

Tomorrow will decide the Alaska draw permits. What’s my chances of drawing a dc590 caribou tag for #14?

Your odds are the same as anyone else’s. If you put in 5 times you got better odds than someone that put in once.


But if 10k people apply and there are 100 tags…just divide number of tags by number of applicants for your chances.

 

[william schmaltz]

Your odds are the same as anyone else’s. If you put in 5 times you got better odds than someone that put in once.


But if 10k people apply and there are 100 tags…just divide number of tags by number of applicants for your chances.

I’ve never seen this clarified to the public what exactly the “apps received” column represents. Does that mean individual souls or does that mean choices submitted? Do I represent one of the “apps received” or six?

If it represents individuals who applied, then the actual number of choices you’re up against could be up to 60,000 or somewhere between 10-60k, since each individual can put in up to 6x per species. In that case, we really don’t know the true odds because some people do the shotgun approach and will put in one choice for 6 different tags for a species and some put all 6 on a single tag.

I don’t lose sleep over it and put in for the tags I want regardless and never plan around draw tags, but I and many others have always been curious and can never get a straight answer.

 

[Trapyotes]

Right. That’s what I was thinking , it could be upwards toward s 60k. I know it’s like playing the lottery, the good thing about is the anticipation going in tomorrow just knowing you got a chance.

 

[peaceman]

you have a chance unless you forgot to file last year's reports, then you have zero chance... It get's some folks every year...

 

[arwhntr]

Gohunt shows last year draw odds at 0.98%. With the reduction in tags assume maybe half of that. Long shot either way but best of luck!

 

[Trapyotes]

Thanks, we will see what happens tomorrow and hopefully I start another post titled “ got the permit ”. Good luck to all that entered in the draw.

 

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’ve never seen this clarified to the public what exactly the “apps received” column represents. Does that mean individual souls or does that mean choices submitted? Do I represent one of the “apps received” or six?

If it represents individuals who applied, then the actual number of choices you’re up against could be up to 60,000 or somewhere between 10-60k, since each individual can put in up to 6x per species. In that case, we really don’t know the true odds because some people do the shotgun approach and will put in one choice for 6 different tags for a species and some put all 6 on a single tag.

I don’t lose sleep over it and put in for the tags I want regardless and never plan around draw tags, but I and many others have always been curious and can never get a straight answer.

I was told once that each chance counts as one.
I always scattered my 6 choices out for antlerless hunts when I lived on the road. Then I got smart. I realized that some hunts have more tags than applicants. I got what I applied for. Then I said f it. I’m moving to the bush where I can hunt what I want without haveing to apply or spend lots of money.

 

[dwhite0622]

My understanding is that each chance counts as an entry, so if you used all, better than the numbers look but still not great...

 

[Doc Holliday]

Anybody know what time they post? I realize it’s only 2:30 AK time right now….

I keep refreshing but no dice

Alaska Drawing Hunt Results, Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

www.adfg.alaska.gov

 

[Trapyotes]

I read it will be posted between 8:00 and 9:00 am Alaska time. So in Pa. For me 12:00

 

[Steve O]

Tomorrow will decide the Alaska draw permits. What’s my chances of drawing a dc590 caribou tag for #14?

Slim.

Good luck.

 

[fatbacks]

Anybody know what time they post? I realize it’s only 2:30 AK time right now….

I keep refreshing but no dice

Alaska Drawing Hunt Results, Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

www.adfg.alaska.gov

Usually happens around 8 am

 

[FAAFO]

They are up

 

[Trapyotes]

Dang, nothing for me.