2024 Wyoming elk draw trends General

[Mojave]

For 2024 on the regular tag
E REGION E GENERAL 81 tags 534 first choice applicants about 1 in 7 odds
S REGION S GENERAL 153 tags 2393 first choice applicants about 1 in 17 odds
W REGION W GENERAL 405 tags 4149 first choice applicants 1 in 10 odds
Special "General Tag" 2024
E REGION E Special General 54 and 135 applicants 1 in 2.5
S REGION S Special General 102 and 149 applicants 1 in 3
W REGION W Special General 270 tags and 1088 applicants 1 in 3
for preference point general
East took 4
South took 5
West took 5
Speciali preference point dropped that by a point per unit

Versus 2023 there were
512 tags for 6612 first choice about one in 13 odds
Preference point took 5 points in 2023
Special took 4 points in 2023
Special "general tag" 2023
342 tags for 3181 applicants about 1 in 9

My takeaways:
1. I am not going to calculate all this out, but I am ballparking it. The $1000 increase in cost dropped the Special to a 1 in 3 odds for a general tag. But who really wants a $2000 general elk tag?
2. Special saved you a point in the points program and gave you 60% better odds in the random.
3. A lot less of Wyoming is on a general tag than I remembered, so is the $2000 tag worth it?
4. I fear this is only the start of price increases.
5. There were over 2000 special elk tags for the general season. This by itself is over $4,000,000. The state knows that is a cash cow.

 

[Smfigari]

For 2024 on the regular tag
E REGION E GENERAL 81 tags 534 first choice applicants about 1 in 7 odds
S REGION S GENERAL 153 tags 2393 first choice applicants about 1 in 17 odds
W REGION W GENERAL 405 tags 4149 first choice applicants 1 in 10 odds
Special "General Tag" 2024
E REGION E Special General 54 and 135 applicants 1 in 2.5
S REGION S Special General 102 and 149 applicants 1 in 3
W REGION W Special General 270 tags and 1088 applicants 1 in 3
for preference point general
East took 4
South took 5
West took 5
Speciali preference point dropped that by a point per unit

Versus 2023 there were
512 tags for 6612 first choice about one in 13 odds
Preference point took 5 points in 2023
Special took 4 points in 2023
Special "general tag" 2023
342 tags for 3181 applicants about 1 in 9

My takeaways:
1. I am not going to calculate all this out, but I am ballparking it. The $1000 increase in cost dropped the Special to a 1 in 3 odds for a general tag. But who really wants a $2000 general elk tag?
2. Special saved you a point in the points program and gave you 60% better odds in the random.
3. A lot less of Wyoming is on a general tag than I remembered, so is the $2000 tag worth it?
4. I fear this is only the start of price increases.
5. There were over 2000 special elk tags for the general season. This by itself is over $4,000,000. The state knows that is a cash cow.

Really appreciate the time/format breaking this down.

 

[j_volt]

$2k sucks, but they still don't charge nearly as much as they could.

 

[Andyram_18]

Just a guess; I think special will stay good for a year or two; until people see an amount of point creep in the regular for General elk. Point systems are susceptible to inflation.

 

[wapitibob]

You're looking at the random numbers, you need the PP side.

 

[swNEhunter]

I was curious how the price increase was going to affect numbers too. Unfortunately the WYGFD doesn't have numbers back to 2019 to see how pre-pandemic apps and tags numbers related. Below and attached are NR General trends.

There were -5.7% less applications this year total.
There was a -37% reduction in NR special General apps, and regular general apps increased 10%.
There was a 25% increase in general tags.

The price increase was effective in lowering the points required to draw a special tag, taking it from 29% at 4 points in 2023 to 55% at 1.5 points (Region S).
Luckily point creep was lower than I expected in the regular general draw, partially due to the 25% increase in tags.

 

[Mcribs]

$2k sucks, but they still don't charge nearly as much as they could.

This is true. States under value what people would pay. Think about the truck/fuel/gear/gun etc. and it’s so much higher cost than the actual thing you need which is the tag.

Not saying I want to pay that price but the money I see people drop on non-essentials makes me think the tags price can go up and it wouldn’t matter.

 

[realunlucky]

I was curious how the price increase was going to affect numbers too. Unfortunately the WYGFD doesn't have numbers back to 2019 to see how pre-pandemic apps and tags numbers related. Below and attached are NR General trends.

There were -5.7% less applications this year total.
There was a -37% reduction in NR special General apps, and regular general apps increased 10%.
There was a 25% increase in general tags.

The price increase was effective in lowering the points required to draw a special tag, taking it from 29% at 4 points in 2023 to 55% at 1.5 points (Region S).
Luckily point creep was lower than I expected in the regular general draw, partially due to the 25% increase in tags.

Cost for the special tag was less effective in the more popular units

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

 

[swNEhunter]

Cost for the special tag was less effective in the more popular units

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

you're right. I was trying not to put a jumbled mess of numbers out there. it still took 4 points to get the Region W tag in the special.

 

[swNEhunter]

Interesting that Region S was the easiest tag to draw for Special, but the hardest tag to draw in the regular.
Regular odds:

 

[Dos Perros]

This is true. States under value what people would pay. Think about the truck/fuel/gear/gun etc. and it’s so much higher cost than the actual thing you need which is the tag.

Not saying I want to pay that price but the money I see people drop on non-essentials makes me think the tags price can go up and it wouldn’t matter.

Should the cost of the tag be equal to what people are willing to pay, or equal to the cost to provide it? Or something else?

 

[Mojave]

The cost should be relative to the value.

 

[steeleywhopper]

Huge price tag to potentially shoot a CWD infected elk in some of the West General units.

 

[wytx]

Huge price tag to potentially shoot a CWD infected elk in some of the West General units.

Have never had one test positive and we hunt in the endemic area.
I would not worry about cwd in my elk.
State wide prevalence in elk was at about 2.8% in 2023 according to sampling.

 

[RunNGunSC]

The cost should relate to funding the resource. Pricing people out is a step towards privatization and the “king’s deer.”

 

[elkocd]

The cost should relate to funding the resource. Pricing people out is a step towards privatization and the “king’s deer.”

WY did not change the price of a regular tag so no one was priced out of anything in comparison to previous years. They only changed the price of the special tag. The intent of the special tag was to provide a better opportunity at tags for those willing to pay more, which in turn helps fund the agency. It had really lost its intended benefit over the years so the increase makes sense.

No one was "forced" to pay anymore for a tag. They were given a choice to pay more if they choose to so I am not sure how that argument holds water.

 

[Wyo_hntr]

WY did not change the price of a regular tag so no one was priced out of anything in comparison to previous years. They only changed the price of the special tag. The intent of the special tag was to provide a better opportunity at tags for those willing to pay more, which in turn helps fund the agency. It had really lost its intended benefit over the years so the increase makes sense.

No one was "forced" to pay anymore for a tag. They were given a choice to pay more if they choose to so I am not sure how that argument holds water.

This is a valid point overlooked by many.

 

[RunNGunSC]

So 40% for the rich doesn’t price people out? I said it was a step in that direction, and it is.

 

[RyanT26]

So 40% for the rich doesn’t price people out? I said it was a step in that direction, and it is.

No, it does not. The special draw is called that for a reason. If you want to pay more, you get slightly better draws in some cases.
You can always apply for the regular draw or not at all….Wyoming doesn’t care.

 

[ScreamingPotato]

So 40% for the rich doesn’t price people out? I said it was a step in that direction, and it is.

40% does seem like too much allocation for a sky high price tag.