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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
For me to run the simulation you need to make specific hunt code choices and see how they play out. You can message the choices to me, and give me an email and I will send you the spreadsheet. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Mighty Mouse, this is going to sound like weak sauce, but by all means I don't have the skillset to differentiate your binomial distribution against the simulation approach. I had to ask AI what the differences were. When I started this, the question was, what is the absolute most dependable... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Yeah now the trick is getting that to translate to a cohort of people who lack the chops to absorb all that. I can follow along, but I can't explain it back to you. Tell me if this sounds bananas. To me it's easier to digest that if you want one of the 9 late archery non-resident tags in 16A... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
The "people aren't predictable like physics" is saying a lot. Seems like that's about all anyone can extrapolate is some variance based on how they acted this time, then that time, and the last time, etc... It seems like it's a known unknown in that it's impossible to predict what people will... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Well I guess we will see how obtainable it really is. See you didn't even know you were helping all along. Nice job. I appreciate you! -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
I didn't realize it would require downloading which you can. But here is a snippet. Seriously, anyone suggest your hunt codes, and it can be for any animal, any weapon, and resident, non-resident, or outfitter. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
I pulled some random hunt codes for non-residents and ran it 100 times. Like I said if anyone else wants to see the simulation on three hunt codes, post em up and I will put up the report. I already know im crazy, but maybe this can help someone. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
You joke but that's more accurate than you may be aware. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
So this database (of which this is a snippet), that is a public document? They use this one? Or a different one? This is what I used. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
"Mental Masturbation" is a great line. I'm not sure you haven't nailed it. Feels like a question I am driven to answer more than the joy at the end. Tell me if this is the wrong way to look at it, but the question I keep asking and tell me if you have a feel for the answer, but what do the... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
The Monte Carlo model with historic trend analysis and influence is exactly how I structured the process. Seems your thoughts on the odds models are what I have seen, or think I am seeing. Why do you think that is? In the end there may not be much applicability either way. Just thought this... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
The publish how many applicants for first, second, and third, as well as tags that are awarded s first, second and third choices across the board for resident, non-resident, and outfitters. None of it's a secret someone has special access to unless they are somehow getting the actual results... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Does anyone want to offer a set of choices to run through the deal, and see what it spits out. Any takers? -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
I wouldn't bet money that is more or less effective as anything else. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Yes, and this is the same data I used as well. Everyone can see the data on the website. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
You may be correct and I don't think we are far apart. The way it's laid out as I understand it is everyone goes into one applicant pool (res, non-res, outfitter). They random sequence all the applicants, and go to the first choice. (certainly the first guy gets his first choice)... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
I appreciate it. This may be the worst idea and dumbest possibly way to look at things. I fully acknowledge that. Certainly wasn't my intent even though I am excited about it. Love how you put that though! Respect back at you. -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Hey, I love where you’re going with this—it’s got me hooked. But here’s what I’m chewing on: is that relationship as straight-line as the formula wants us to think? Picture it like this: what are the odds you even get a seat at the table to begin with? That’s the real kicker. The trouble with... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Hey, you’re hitting right where I’m at. I’m putting in either way—gotta play to win, right? But how do I make sure I end up somewhere that’s worth the trip? That’s the itch I’m scratching. All this data floating around—ONX, GoHunt, the works—it’s gotta be worth something, I’d think. So how do we... -
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New Mexico Big Game Draw Simulator
Hey, so here’s where I’m getting tangled up—and maybe you’ve already got this wired, but I’m still wrestling with it. What do those odds even mean in real life? Say you’ve got 5 tags up for grabs, 100 people throwing their hat in the ring. Simple math says 5%, right? That’s the easy part. But...
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