What do you consider a "chip shot"

TaperPin

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At 400 to 500 yards I’ve come to believe if you convince someone they can make a steady shot, you’re right. If you convince them they will probably miss, you are also right. Sitting next to green kids with very few animals under their belts, seeing them make great one shot kills is one of life’s simple pleasures. *chuckle*
 
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Macintosh

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On animals? Yes. Without question.

How many hunters have missed a deer shooting from a sandbag in a box blind with a deer feeding on corn at sub 100 yards? Nearly everyone that has shot more than a handful of deer has.






Have you ever tried walking out and shooting prone at 300 yards, on a 10” plate, 100 days in a row, with every single day being in a different location/range, with no practice shots between days? If not, I would say you are vastly over estimating your percentage. I don’t mean that rudely.

Beyond that, 100 shots at animal at 300 yards? I’ve done that. I missed more than once. Have you? Again, if you haven’t, I would suggest it won’t go as you think it will.




I wasn’t asked about a specific person, I was asked about median shooters. Let me put it this way, if you lined up 100 average shooters, had them show up to a ranch/farm 100 days in a row, I would bet $1,000 per shooter, that they each will miss the lungs more than 1 time in 100 shots on animals at 100 yards. You could make it $10,000 per shooter and it wouldn’t matter.

Just driving to and from the hunt each day would cause zero shifts in the vast majority of scopes. Let alone flinching, rifles, stress from work, an angry spouse, etc. 99% is an extremely high confidence level, and most have no clue what that actually means in the field because they’ve never taken a hundred shots at animals, let alone killed 100 animals.

For clarity, I am at either 5 or 6 missed shots on animals from 10 yards to 1,106 yards in the last 250 or so. 3 of those missed shots were follow up shots on moving animals after the first hit. In those 250 animals for me, I have seen a lot of misses by others- a lot.


Much like the cold bore challenge, with multiple people that argued that I was wrong about hit rates and that they are “on demand” from 600, 700, 800, whatever- that then missed one or both of their sub 600 yard cold bore shots.
Nope, I dont get 100 days a year to shoot. Ive been hunting almost 40 years, I dont think Ive taken 100 shots at big game animals, but its closer to 100 than it is to 50. But again, Im not—and neither was the scenario—talking about doing this in wacky conditions. It wasnt even a box blind. The scenario was an accurate range, prone supported, with little to no wind and plenty of time—the easiest conditions from the most stable position. And Im not talking about crappy equipment, Im talking about my own gear, my own dope. I hear you, I just cant wrap my head around not being able to hit a 5moa target prone in no wind, no time limit, etc conditions at relatively short range, every time. I’m not sure if youre making me feel a lot more solid than I would have said, or making me second guess my own shooting. But I can definitively say that while Ive missed a bunch of deer, Ive never missed one prone. Although Ive never shot at one eating corn, maybe that’s what messes people up so much?
 

TaperPin

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No one is perfect, or 99% perfect that’s for sure. Has me curious to answer that question for myself in a meaningful way, without self deception or ego:

What is a statistically valid percentage of my cold bore hits at 400-500 in field positions?

I am confident, but what is my actual number.
I’m looking forward to seeing what it’s like shooting off a tripod - it’s a very strange feeling to have a completely new field position! This year I may stay away from the range as much as possible and shoot in the sage brush more.
 

FYG

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50’ish yards, maybe a touch more- but less than 100y. People do not realize what 99% functionally means

To put this in perspective, my range for 99% would be between 300 and 350 yards in easy winds.
I'm not doubting this, as you've seen it and I haven't- but I will say I'm as surprised by this answer as I am by the answers on the upper end of the spectrum. 10" target is damn near big enough to hit first round while bore sighting a rifle at 50 yards.

I'm not sure how you have faith in anyone to kill animals at any significant ranges! When you're setting up a friend or a family member to take a shot, what level of confidence do you need to feel that they're going to make a lethal first round shot before having them pull the trigger?
 

Formidilosus

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Nope, I dont get 100 days a year to shoot. Ive been hunting almost 40 years, I dont think Ive taken 100 shots at big game animals, but its closer to 100 than it is to 50. But again, Im not—and neither was the scenario—talking about doing this in wacky conditions. It wasnt even a box blind. The scenario was an accurate range, prone supported, with little to no wind and plenty of time—the easiest conditions from the most stable position. And Im not talking about crappy equipment, Im talking about my own gear, my own dope. I hear you, I just cant wrap my head around not being able to hit a 5moa target prone in no wind, no time limit, etc conditions at relatively short range, every time. I’m not sure if youre making me feel a lot more solid than I would have said, or making me second guess my own shooting. But I can definitively say that while Ive missed a bunch of deer, Ive never missed one prone. Although Ive never shot at one eating corn, maybe that’s what messes people up so much?

Again- I didn’t say Macintosh was limited to 300 yards. I don’t know what you can do. I addressed “median” shooters, and myself. If you believe the “median shooter” is 99% past 100 yards in animals… I would say that you have unrealistic view of the average American hunter.

Of course I could be incorrect as well, and there could be a bunch of hunters that don’t zero, don’t have rifles that work, don’t practice, don’t have past a 100 yard range they ever shoot at that are just movie level, stone cold surgeons at 200-300 yards.
 

Formidilosus

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I'm not sure how you have faith in anyone to kill animals at any significant ranges!


Because 100% doesn’t exist, and 99% is patently ridiculous for anyone that shoots and kills enough to be making assumptions.



When you're setting up a friend or a family member to take a shot, what level of confidence do you need to feel that they're going to make a lethal first round shot before having them pull the trigger?

I don’t have people pull the trigger, they are adults and make their own decisions. I might make suggestions, and those all depends on the shooter skill, environment, fitness, terrain, etc. 80-85% first round vital hit is a pretty solid baseline. The differences between people come down to shooting ability- those that have an optimum shot process and system, that also practice consistently (multiple times a month) for field shooting- have very high success rates. Those that either don’t have a shot process or that have a compromised process, and those that aren’t practicing field shooting consistently- have a relatively high failure rate.
 

Macintosh

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Feels like this is getting mired in the nuance between 99% and 100% and 95% or whatever, and the things that are controllable versus not controllable. As someone else posted, until we are all talking about the same situation in the same conditions and the same odds, it’s not an answerable question. if we say a “chip shot” is one where you have an extremely high probability of a hit, and it’s a given that at long range—this is a long range hunting forum after all—wind is going to play a major factor in that, along with position and other factors that are unique to every situation, the only thing we can do is start from a flat square range in zero wind conditions. Whatever the maximum chip shot is, conditions like that are where it’s going to happen. And yes, there are all sorts of unexpected things that can catch you off guard. The wind can suddenly pick up unexpectedly, you can suddenly get stung in the ass by a hornet, a branch can suddenly fall on your head, or whatever. Those things are largely not controllable (beyond the obvious—don’t set up on a hornets nest!), and they also don’t happen frequently. Whatever statistical relevance they have is still a rarity that can’t be controlled, and to me makes no sense in the conversation beyond that its a good point to keep weird unpredictable stuff in the back of your mind and not get complacent, but to me, it doesn’t affect the answer. If the maximum probability of making a hit is never 100%, fine, that makes sense to me, so the scale tops out at 95% or whatever. Again, that doesn’t change the answer, because I’m talking about the shot that I can make nearly every time when strange unpredictable stuff DOESNT happen…because most of the time that stuff does just that, it doesnt happen. Also, I understand that range will amplify everything, so small unpredictable stuff that might not matter at 50 yards, obviously matters more at 300 or 500 or whatever.

I do have a question. If someone is arguing that 300 yards or 400 yards or whatever cannot be considered a chip shot i.e. one that you have confidence of making nearly every time barring a fluke, how is it possible to, in the same breath, justify taking a 1000 yard shot? We’re talking about the easiest, cupcake conditions in both cases.
 
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Formidilosus

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Feels like this is getting mired in the nuance between 99% and 100% and 95% or whatever, and the things that are controllable versus not controllable.

Of course we are, because if we aren’t being specific then we aren’t talking about the same things as you note.


As someone else posted, until we are all talking about the same situation in the same conditions and the same odds, it’s not an answerable question. if we say a “chip shot” is one where you have an extremely high probability of a hit, and it’s a given that at long range—this is a long range hunting forum after all—wind is going to play a major factor in that, along with position and other factors that are unique to every situation, the only thing we can do is start from a flat square range in zero wind conditions.

The OP specified “dead critter walkin” chip shot range. If you want to talk about a flat range, ok. But the flat range does not translate to animals. This is why people are overestimating their, and others ability- the flat range is not the field on animals.



Whatever the maximum chip shot is, conditions like that are where it’s going to happen. And yes, there are all sorts of unexpected things that can catch you off guard. The wind can suddenly pick up unexpectedly, you can suddenly get stung in the ass by a hornet, a branch can suddenly fall on your head, or whatever. Those things are largely not controllable (beyond the obvious—don’t set up on a hornets nest!), and they also don’t happen frequently. Whatever statistical relevance they have is still a rarity that can’t be controlled, and to me makes no sense in the conversation beyond that its a good point to keep weird unpredictable stuff in the back of your mind and not get complacent, but to me, it doesn’t affect the answer. If the maximum probability of making a hit is never 100%, fine, that makes sense to me, so the scale tops out at 95% or whatever. Again, that doesn’t change the answer, because I’m talking about the shot that I can make nearly every time when strange unpredictable stuff DOESNT happen…because most of the time that stuff does just that, it doesnt happen.

(bolded part)

That’s not at all what I’ve seen. Strange and unexpected stuff happens frequently on animals, especially mountain animals and animals in large herds.




I do have a question. If someone is arguing that 300 yards or 400 yards or whatever cannot be considered a chip shot i.e. one that you have confidence of making nearly every time barring a fluke, how is it possible to, in the same breath, justify taking a 1000 yard shot? We’re talking about the easiest, cupcake conditions in both cases.

Because nothing is 100%. The whole problem starts with the notion that any shot is a chip shot- they aren’t. The community needs to start being honest about things. The moment someone says “I don’t shoot unless I am 110% confident of a perfect shot” I know they have no idea what they are doing. First- there is no 100%, let alone “110%” or whatever silly thing gets stated. Second, “confidence” is not reality and almost always is devoid or separated from measured on demand ability- stupid people are extremely confidant.

As soon as someone says “I don’t shoot until I am 100%” I ask- “so you’ve never missed a shot?” To which of course they reply that they have, along with an excuse matrix about how those missed shots don’t count. Ok, so you are a lier about not shooting unless 100%, or you are incompetent and do not know what 100% means.

As for 1,000 yard shots on animals- don’t. I have stated repeatedly that for the best field shooters walking- 800 yards plus, just go ahead and set a spare mag by the rifle before you shoot- because there is a good chance you’ll need it. People that say that’s bs, ok- how many animals have you shot past 800 yards in the field? Because if all someone has done is one animal, or two- that’s not data for the positive side. Shoot or see shot 30+ animals at 800 yards and then come back and say all were first round vital hits without issue.
However, because there is no 100%, and because even 95% is a ridiculously high standard and would limit the unbelievable (apparently) vast majority of people to not hunt with a bow at all, ever; completely eliminate trad bows, and would limit rifle shots to sub 100 yards- then reality must come in. There are people who at your stated 1,000 yards are as high a percentage as lots of “serious” hunters are at 300 yards.

Every shooting animals has a risk factor- every one. So the question becomes what someone has done to minimize those factors, and whether when it all is added up- is that percentage high enough to not be a “hope”. When people are talking about 500, 600 yard and further shots on animals and their practice for a year is in the hundreds of rounds, not thousands…. They will have disasters.
 

ElkTycoon

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In good conditions 500 yards and under for me personally.

I didn’t read all the posts but a thread like this always gets spicy. The reality is hunting is wild in nature and nothing is guaranteed whether you’re using a rifle or a bow. I know great hunters who have messed up “close” shots with both rifles and bows. I’ve done it too. But I’m gonna keep hunting and doing my thing. Regardless of all the words we throw out in a forum chat.
 

19hunt92

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Had a humbling experience this year, i would consider my chip shot to be out to 300 yds with the 260 rem i had. Been shooting it for a few years and knock jugs off out to 500 yds pretty easily. I got to the point of shooting in the worst wind possible to make it more fun.
Went on a deer hunt this past fall and expected shots out past 500 if needed. Ended up having a deer pop up at 201 yds exactly and thought this was the best thing ever. Lined up on the pack, could only see the top of the shoulders, so i was going for a base of the neck shot "no question kill shot"...
Let one fly and the deer just sat there...um wtf... waited for the deer to move and provided me with a broadside shot at 220. Shot again and hit it back (right 8"), saw that impact and then followed up with the kill shot.
Long story short, i though we were good but my scope got knocked off, went to rezero and all aces again but man did i look like an arrogant ass in front of my hunting partner and feel a sinking gut feeling immediately.
 

TaperPin

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Statistics about large groups of people that are then applied to individual shooters makes me look for the hip waders! *chuckle*
 
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Had a humbling experience this year, i would consider my chip shot to be out to 300 yds with the 260 rem i had. Been shooting it for a few years and knock jugs off out to 500 yds pretty easily. I got to the point of shooting in the worst wind possible to make it more fun.
Went on a deer hunt this past fall and expected shots out past 500 if needed. Ended up having a deer pop up at 201 yds exactly and thought this was the best thing ever. Lined up on the pack, could only see the top of the shoulders, so i was going for a base of the neck shot "no question kill shot"...
Let one fly and the deer just sat there...um wtf... waited for the deer to move and provided me with a broadside shot at 220. Shot again and hit it back (right 8"), saw that impact and then followed up with the kill shot.
Long story short, i though we were good but my scope got knocked off, went to rezero and all aces again but man did i look like an arrogant ass in front of my hunting partner and feel a sinking gut feeling immediately.


what scope and mounting system?
 
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On animals? Yes. Without question.

How many hunters have missed a deer shooting from a sandbag in a box blind with a deer feeding on corn at sub 100 yards? Nearly everyone that has shot more than a handful of deer has.






Have you ever tried walking out and shooting prone at 300 yards, on a 10” plate, 100 days in a row, with every single day being in a different location/range, with no practice shots between days? If not, I would say you are vastly over estimating your percentage. I don’t mean that rudely.

Beyond that, 100 shots at animal at 300 yards? I’ve done that. I missed more than once. Have you? Again, if you haven’t, I would suggest it won’t go as you think it will.




I wasn’t asked about a specific person, I was asked about median shooters. Let me put it this way, if you lined up 100 average shooters, had them show up to a ranch/farm 100 days in a row, I would bet $1,000 per shooter, that they each will miss the lungs more than 1 time in 100 shots on animals at 100 yards. You could make it $10,000 per shooter and it wouldn’t matter.

Just driving to and from the hunt each day would cause zero shifts in the vast majority of scopes. Let alone flinching, rifles, stress from work, an angry spouse, etc. 99% is an extremely high confidence level, and most have no clue what that actually means in the field because they’ve never taken a hundred shots at animals, let alone killed 100 animals.

For clarity, I am at either 5 or 6 missed shots on animals from 10 yards to 1,106 yards in the last 250 or so. 3 of those missed shots were follow up shots on moving animals after the first hit. In those 250 animals for me, I have seen a lot of misses by others- a lot.


Much like the cold bore challenge, with multiple people that argued that I was wrong about hit rates and that they are “on demand” from 600, 700, 800, whatever- that then missed one or both of their sub 600 yard cold bore shots.
Maybe that could be a new rokslide challenge? 100 rounds, 100 different days, all onto the same single paper plate?

Set up some basic parameters.
It would take me well over a year to do it but I'd spend some money on 100 rounds of factory ammo to test myself

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Macintosh

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If 30 rounds gives us a 95% confidence level in group size, maybe 30 shots would be more realistic and still provide enough “proof is in the pudding”?
Draw a 3.5” circle and a 2” circle in the center (10” @300, 500 = about 3.5”, 2” at 100). 30 cold bore shots, prone—lets say you can do 5 shots per range trip, but you have to start standing with all gear in hand and build a new position before every shot—all on the same target. Post a picture of the target after 6 range trips/30 rounds. Anyone keeping all 30 shots on paper is officially “above average”. Keep all 30 inside 3.5” and you’re a BAMF. All 30 touching the 2” circle gets a “Damn, Son, that’s some FIIIINE shootin!” post from @Formidilosus
 
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FYG

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If 30 rounds gives us a 95% confidence level in group size, maybe 30 shots would be more realistic and still provide enough “proof is in the pudding”?
Draw a 3.5” circle and a 2” circle in the center (10” @300, 500 = about 3.5”, 2” at 100). 30 cold bore shots, prone—lets say you can do 5 shots per range trip, but you have to start standing with all gear in hand and build a new position before every shot—all on the same target. Post a picture of the target after 6 range trips/30 rounds. Anyone keeping all 30 shots on paper is officially “above average”. Keep all 30 inside 3.5” and you’re a BAMF. All 30 touching the 2” circle gets a “Damn, Son, that’s some FIIIINE shootin!” post from @Formidilosus
Every single qual that takes place for us starts with a cold bore shot at 100 yards, prone and supported yes, but whatever conditions Ma nature gives us weather-wise. Trapezoid target within a face that's approximately 3.25" on top, 2" on bottom, roughly 3" on either side. If the shooter misses, they stop their qualification and are un-deployable until they pass subsequent qualifications and have commander sign off. Between 4 of us, doing monthly quals, over the last 6 years+, there have been zero failures due to the cold bore shot. I say this knowing there are much more experienced and better shooters on this thread than the 4 of us mentioned only to point out that in nearly 300 cold bore shots on a target of this size, under variable conditions at 100 yards with a supported position and no time limit, that is a 100% hit rate. Someday, someone will miss, so I understand what @Formidilosus is saying in regards to nothing being 100%- statistically, nearly nothing is- besides death- not even taxes can claim that. But not a one of us would pull the trigger under certain situations not knowing that as infinitely close to 100% hit rate is the outcome. So lets call certainty 99.9%. I think this is why I was so surprised to hear50 yards, 10" target for the median shooter. Yes, I asked for the median shooter from you, Form. And again, I haven't been there, so your data is your data, and surely larger and more diverse than mine, which is why I posed the question to you specifically. If there was a way to see a bell curve of hit rate of your shooters against varying ranges, I would certainly be interested, as I imagine both ends of the curve are quite steep as they approach the bottom end of hit rates as well as the 100% hit rate, but unfortunately that is an unrealistic ask for any one of us. I would also be curious to hear what the 99% range starts at for the HAHA participants, and what it finishes at, if different, or if that experience instead gives each shooter a better defined understanding of their upper limits.

I don’t have people pull the trigger, they are adults and make their own decisions. I might make suggestions, and those all depends on the shooter skill, environment, fitness, terrain, etc. 80-85% first round vital hit is a pretty solid baseline. The differences between people come down to shooting ability- those that have an optimum shot process and system, that also practice consistently (multiple times a month) for field shooting- have very high success rates. Those that either don’t have a shot process or that have a compromised process, and those that aren’t practicing field shooting consistently- have a relatively high failure rate.
Another example of vernacular failing me, and a fair response- I should have phrased this better. I appreciate your candid answer.
 

repins05

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I consider 400 yards a chip shot using my tripod. My tripod set up almost takes the fun out of shooting animals 400 and closer. However....I won't hunt without it now.
 

mcr-85

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The last three bull elk I have killed were at 465, 465 and 425 with little to no wind. All 1 shot kills. One at 465 was off a bipod with my bino pack as a rear support. The other two off my tripod with no rear support. I'd take any one of those shots again no questions.

I have missed a little further and then sorta missed even closer, with a different gun and a scope that failed me. That problem has been rectified. I hit the deer at 80 yards....just not where I was aiming.

On coyotes I have missed more chip shots than I care to count. But I get more excited about coyotes than I do anything else. I kill most the ones I call in but occasionally I just shoot warning shots.

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Shraggs

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Been thinking a lot about this, a chip shot.

My criteria is
- little to no wind
- animal is generally not moving
- easy to range, and verifiable again
- can build prone, sitting or tree branch kneeling.

I’m less concerned about the range, but 400+ is long range for me those aren’t going to be a chip shot.
 
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