Vaccine?

[Marbles]

Uh. Everything around it is hinky. How long has flu been around? Since Indians were still raiding the plains. That vaccine is only like 40 percent effective. So they trying to tell me they have found a vaccine that is 90 percent effective on a pandemic level virus that has only been around for less then one year. Haha....no thanks....they funny...which just that leads to, or should lead to all sorts of other questions. Unless everyone already drinking the koolaid...
I spent a long while in military getting stuck with all kinds of nonsense. Like the anthrax vaccine.

News flash....The government is lying!

Comparing the influenza vaccine to pretty much any other vaccine ever made is like comparing a blunderbuss to a smokeless powder rifle.

Influenza and SARS-COV-2 have about as much in common as a deer and a brown bear (both are mammals/both are viruses).

Effectiveness of the influenza vaccine varies year to year because it represents a best guess at which strains will become prevalent and as no one has a crystal ball sometimes that guess is worse than others (40 % represents a poor performance year for the influenza vaccine).

SARS-COV-2 is so nasty (2% mortality in US, 20-25% hospitalization rate) because of the spike protein that binds to ACE (angiotensin converting enzyme). Many of the vaccines under development target this protein. Like most other vaccines (measles, rubella, mumps, HPV, hep B, Hep A, small pox, polio, tetanus, Etc.), it is easy to believe that this one can be 90-95% effective as well.

 

[IdahoElk]

I have. Perfectly healthy young people have died in our hospital. Some new research I looked at showed, among some people who had severe disease, something like 10% of them had a specific minor immune deficiency that otherwise wasn’t causing them problems and they did not know about. I’m sure there are more that have not been discovered. It’s NOT just old or unhealthy people...huge myth. Russian Roulette is a great analogy.

—the flu is a moving target. The virus changes itself slightly every year and we need a new vaccine. Flu shots save thousands of lives every year. Some years the flu is terrible on children and lots of kiddos die. Flu shots are a very good thing.
—the common cold is caused by a whole bunch of different viruses. Coronaviruses included! COVID-19 is caused by a specific variety of coronavirus that is particularly nasty. So if we can get a good vaccine for it...there’s a chance it will not come back. It might mutate slightly and come back next year...but research so far is showing that the virus does not mutate rapidly like the flu or HIV or something like that.

Go for it!

 

[Kotaman]

I’m going to get it, because I want to hunt in Canada. Guessing we are going to have to have it to hunt there and many other places. It’s that simple for me...

 

[EastMT]

The great part about living in the USA is anyone that wants to take the vaccine will be able to get it. And anyone that doesn’t want to take it, doesn’t have to. Do your research, talk to educated people (preferably who are medical drs.) you trust and make your decision.

Yup, most likely won’t be mandatory, except to fly, enter Canada, go on a cruise ship, travel internationally, etc. It was a real pain traveling through Canada this year, I’d say it will be banned without proof of Vac by spring.


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[SDHNTR]

Just curious but have you seen relatively healthy people have many issues from the virus?

I have. Lots. From chronic fatigue, to strokes, to inflammatory joint issues and rashes, to amputations and permanent loss of lung function. The people who are only looking at the survival stats are missing a lot of dangerous data.

 

[SDHNTR]

Is anyone else noticing that the actual health care workers on this thread are the ones saying how dangerous this disease is and how the vaccine should be taken? While the average Joe’s are the ones sowing doubt and dismissing the seriousness? That’s very telling to me! I’m going to listen to the pro’s on this one. Seems like a better source of info than the random internet hunter that turns a crank for a living.

 

[Marbles]

The long term effects of this vaccine are going to be tested in hindsight, but not on me.

We all have to make our own risk benefit analysis. My guess (yes, it is only a guess as hard data is not available at this point) is that the prevalence and severity of vaccine side effects will be significantly lower than those of COVID. Keep in mind that COVID has life altering, long term consequences for some who survive it as well ranging from neurologic deficits to cardio myopathy. These are what we know of now, it is possible that many others will come to the surface as time goes on.

Edit: my memory is not correct. I will post correct information in a new post and leave this as is because the correct information does not materially change the conclusions (it was 10 years ago that I last looked into anthrax and smallpox vaccines, so I should have known not to trust my memory). End Edit

Historically, even really dangerous vaccines such as anthrax have far fewer adverse effects than the COVID death rate alone. The anthrax vaccine, if memory serves, had 1 severe adverse effect per 28,000 doses. This was why it was only ever given to deploying military and perhaps a few others going to biologic warfare risk areas--to cause pulmonary anthrax it must be weaponized, and cutaneous (skin) anthrax infections are not really an issue. Death, or hospitalization would be considered a sever adverse effect of a vaccine. At its current rate in the US, SARS-COV-2 would kill 560 of that 28,000, put another 5,600 to 7000 in the hospital, and cause an unknown (but greater than 560) number of permanent health problems. So, even assuming the COVID vaccine turns out to be 100 times worse than one of the nastiest vaccines I know of, it is still significantly safer than getting COVID.

This is like people who argue that not wearing a seatbelt saved a friends life, so they don't wear theirs. Yes, in a small percentage of MVAs a seat belt might actually be harmful, but the risk from not using it is significantly higher than the risk of using it. Of course, this comparison has hard data to back it up, so it is not completely applicable.

Tactical and strategic decisions have to be made off the best information available at the time. Paralysis rarely works out well, however intentionally choosing to hold a position rather than move is a valid choice. Equally, reflexively charging ahead can be disastrous. So, there is not a simple, preformulated answer to how one should act in every situation.

Personally, after hundreds of hours of research regarding COVID (based on a foundation of thousands of hours of education) and hundreds more working with COVID patients, taking the vaccine is an easy choice even though I'm far from an expert on COVID or infectious disease.

Foot notes:
-2% death rate comes from taking all deaths attributed to COVID and dividing but all positive cases in the US. This does not account for indirect deaths from COVID, being people who do not have the virous, but due to a lack of resources such as ICU beds die even though in normal times they would have survived. Excess death data suggest this number equals about 1/3 of COVID deaths.
-There is not good data on hospitalization rates, most of it comes from small samples early on. So while this number should be taken with a grain of salt, it is reasonable that for every person who dies from COVID 10 would be hospitalized, which is why I'm willing to give some credence to those numbers.

 

[netman]

I voted No but open to those in the medical fields input.
Thought this memes was perfect for this topic.

 

[justin davis]

Is anyone else noticing that the actual health care workers on this thread are the ones saying how dangerous this disease is and how the vaccine should be taken? While the average Joe’s are the ones sowing doubt and dismissing the seriousness? That’s very telling to me! I’m going to listen to the pro’s on this one. Seems like a better source of info than the random internet hunter that turns a crank for a living.

Im a healthcare worker. And like I said I won’t be getting it. I just hope my department doesn’t make it mandatory

My body my choice right?

 

[Fatcamp]

Is anyone else noticing that the actual health care workers on this thread are the ones saying how dangerous this disease is and how the vaccine should be taken? While the average Joe’s are the ones sowing doubt and dismissing the seriousness? That’s very telling to me! I’m going to listen to the pro’s on this one. Seems like a better source of info than the random internet hunter that turns a crank for a living.

At this point I can't even count the number of people I have seen with this. Plenty of otherwise reasonably healthy people, particularly men in their 50's, who have been absolutely waylaid by this virus. Weeks in the hospital. Days sedated and intubated. Then a massive amount of oxygen delivered just to be able to stay alive. Don't even think of walking to the bathroom because if they try they get so short of breath they cannot stand. Over and over and over.

Imagine going from living an otherwise normal life to not being able to sit in a chair because you become so short of oxygen you feel like you are dying. In a matter of days. Me and my people see it every single day.

You can go back to the original big covid thread and find my post about how it was nothing to worry about. Let me tell you, I was very wrong. If I was 25 and lived away from at risk people I can see how it wouldn't concern me, but I have elderly family, immunocompromised friends, and am old enough to be at risk. This virus is something fear for someone in my position.

 

[Marbles]

The anthrax vaccine is significantly safer than I was thinking, I believe I mixed it up with the smallpox vaccine as I was researching both at the same time while in the military. The anthrax vaccine causes about 1 severe adverse reaction per 100,000 doses. Smallpox is the high risk vaccine. For some context on the risk with the smallpox vaccine and why it was judged acceptable, the more common variola major strain of smallpox had a 30% mortality rate with the less common variola minor strain having a 1% mortality rate.

I will compare the know effects of COVID with adverse events from the smallpox vaccine. For smallpox vaccine, 1 person per 1,000 has a serious, but none life threatening, adverse reaction. 14-52 people per 1 million doses will have a life threatening adverse reaction (I will just use 52/million for the rest of this as this assumption is the least favorable to my position), and 1-2 people per 1 million vaccinated will die as a result (I will assume 2/million for simplicity).

So, assuming hospitalization equate with severe adverse effects (which probably underestimate sever adverse effects of COVID).
Smallpox vaccine 1/1,000 (1,000/million)
COVID 200/1,000 (200,000/million)

Death
Smallpox vaccine 2/million
COVID 20,000/million

Assuming an ICU stay equates to life threatening adverse reaction (I don't have a good source for ICU admission rates, but have came across 5% and given even a death rate of 1% this number is reasonable, so I will use it).
Smallpox vaccine 52/million
COVID 50,000/million

So, even if the COVID vaccine is 1,000 times worse than the smallpox vaccine, it would still be safer than getting COVID. Note, based on the current data it is highly likely the COVID vaccine is significantly safer than the smallpox vaccine.

 

[Sanchez]

I see two sides to input from medical professionals. First, they know more on average so they should be listened to. On the other side, they make a living and profit from all things medical so they will advise at least in part based on self interest which may not always be the interest of the public.

Remember the initial advise on masks. When they were in short supply, medical professionals downplayed the value for the public to have them so they could monopolize the supply. After supply caught up with demand, the medical professionals reversed and started strongly advising everyone to wear a mask.

 

[SDHNTR]

Im a healthcare worker. And like I said I won’t be getting it. I just hope my department doesn’t make it mandatory

My body my choice right?

Yep.

 

[Marbles]

I see two sides to input from medical professionals. First, they know more on average so they should be listened to. On the other side, they make a living and profit from all things medical so they will advise at least in part based on self interest which may not always be the interest of the public.

Remember the initial advise on masks. When they were in short supply, medical professionals downplayed the value for the public to have them so they could monopolize the supply. After supply caught up with demand, the medical professionals reversed and started strongly advising everyone to wear a mask.

If I wanted to make money off of COVID, I will tell everyone not to take precautions as an ICU stay easily costs hundreds of thousands of dollars per week.

The BS with the CDC at the start of this was pretty bad. The masks bit gets complicated and into who needs it most. However, that did not justify the inaccuracies put out by some individuals. It is impossible not to get into politics on this as the idea of lying to the public to maintain calm started at the top of the executive branch. Some of the bad information has hurt medical professionals, despite overwhelming evidence that SARS-COV-2 is airborne, the CDC and WHO insisted that it was only droplet for months. I believe this was to keep healthcare workers on the job due to a lack of kit for airborne isolation. Regardless, the denial of reality to minimize the severity of this was a mistake that undermined trust.

 

[204guy]

@Marbles thank you for the educated input.

What would you say about my daughters? Healthy 2 & 4. Statistically their chance of dyeing from COVID seems to be essentially zero. I don't know and haven't heard much about potential long term COVID complications on children. I feel like vaccinating children is solely to the benefit of those most at risk. While at the same time putting children at risk with a new vaccine that hasn't been and can't yet be thoroughly vetted with regards to long term side effects.

 

[IdahoElk]

Is anyone else noticing that the actual health care workers on this thread are the ones saying how dangerous this disease is and how the vaccine should be taken? While the average Joe’s are the ones sowing doubt and dismissing the seriousness? That’s very telling to me! I’m going to listen to the pro’s on this one. Seems like a better source of info than the random internet hunter that turns a crank for a living.

Maybe one of these pro’s can chime in and tell us what exactly is in the vaccine, how It works and what are the possible side effects.
I doubt any will respond because they have no idea.

 

[orionthehunter1]

^^^^bingo^^^^

 

[Mike Islander]

To help us get to herd immunity. If it's safe, I'd feel like a dick if I didn't. But that's just me. I'm not going to be influenced by politics on this. It's a national security issue...to me.

 

[Marbles]

@Marbles thank you for the educated input.

What would you say about my daughters? Healthy 2 & 4. Statistically their chance of dyeing from COVID seems to be essentially zero. I don't know and haven't heard much about potential long term COVID complications on children. I feel like vaccinating children is solely to the benefit of those most at risk. While at the same time putting children at risk with a new vaccine that hasn't been and can't yet be thoroughly vetted with regards to long term side effects.

There is not good data available on children, part of this is because many states don't report age with their case data. One can confidently say they are lower risk than adults.

From the data the American Academy of Pediatrics has put together it looks like about 0.14% of child cases of COVID lead to death and 0.2 to 5.6% of children with COVID end up in the hospital. It is very likely that the vaccine is still safer, however as you point out most of the benefit of vaccinating children is to protect those who either don't respond to the vaccine or cannot get it for some reason, such as allergy to an ingredient.

Personally, I will vaccinate my daughters when it is available, but I'm not going to go to any extra effort to get it done. I'm also willing to bet they will be the last ones it is offered to, which also means more data will be available to guide the decision.

 

[realunlucky]

A race to be the first, where the winner receives an bottomless treasure chest full of tax payer money and second place gets ZERO return on their investment of time or money.

Yep no corners were possibly cut trying to be number one.


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