Elk hunting newbie odds

[hoosierhunter11]

Flat lander from Indiana here. I was having a conversation with my hunting buddies last weekend about newbie odds on the first (or first couple) DIY archery elk hunt. A lot of my buddies talk about going but between running businesses, having young families, money, etc. they are putting it off. No different than any other reason people put things off. Another culprit is the stories they hear about guys going and not even seeing or hearing elk.

I was fortunate to tag a bull on my first elk hunt this past Sep in a low point unit in CO thanks to being hard headed, stubborn, and not willing to give up. That experience completely changed my outlook on the outdoors and what I want to accomplish and dedicate my hobby time to. I am trying to encourage them to buy a dang tag and go, heck maybe take one or two of them in the next couple of years.

Anyways, based on your experience, what kind of odds at success do you give folks with minimal experience hunting in the mountains to actually get a bull on their first hunt or hunt/s?

Not tooting my own horn, I know I got pretty lucky and was in the right place at right time. Fortunate to be able to capitalize on it on day 8!

 

[Ross]

A lot of it depends on the state and the region within the state. Elk hunting is about hard work and time afield. That being said, if the opportunity is super slim and the country difficult, a newbie has close to zero chance. But luck can come into play any day you are not on the couch. Two examples I know of this year where luck killed a bull. 1. Logger on his skidder at job site. Rifle in the skidder late rifle season in October. 340 bull walks into the job site . 2. Father’s camp. 30 yr old guy who has never shot anything. Opening day 11:30 am. He is using a borrowed gun. Father has bugled a few times. Hears odd sound below and something walking in the brush for over an hr. Sitting eating lunch looks downhill sees rack about 110 yds away. Bull steps into opening looks at him. Goes to shoot. Safety on. Gets safety off, squeezes trigger no bullet in chamber. Bull standing watching. He fumbles with gun, gun jams with slide trying to load. He fumbles some more. Bull still standing watching. Finally gets shot and bull never moved just watched him. Dead bull

 

[hoosierhunter11]

Might as well show my dang bull while I’m here! It’s on rokslide a few places but another one won’t hurt.

 

[Soj51hopeful]

If your friends aren’t motivated by your success then I doubt they will want to go and have a good time. If they can’t stomach the idea of coming home empty handed after committing the time and busting their balls then don’t bother.

 

[ElkArcher918]

Flat lander from Indiana here. I was having a conversation with my hunting buddies last weekend about newbie odds on the first (or first couple) DIY archery elk hunt. A lot of my buddies talk about going but between running businesses, having young families, money, etc. they are putting it off. No different than any other reason people put things off. Another culprit is the stories they hear about guys going and not even seeing or hearing elk.

I was fortunate to tag a bull on my first elk hunt this past Sep in a low point unit in CO thanks to being hard headed, stubborn, and not willing to give up. That experience completely changed my outlook on the outdoors and what I want to accomplish and dedicate my hobby time to. I am trying to encourage them to buy a dang tag and go, heck maybe take one or two of them in the next couple of years.

Anyways, based on your experience, what kind of odds at success do you give folks with minimal experience hunting in the mountains to actually get a bull on their first hunt or hunt/s?

Not tooting my own horn, I know I got pretty lucky and was in the right place at right time. Fortunate to be able to capitalize on it on day 8!

IMO, based on my personal experience with some old whitetail hunting friends from back East I would say the odds of a total newb scoring on a DIY archery bull elk on their first trip out West is less than 5%. Now if the guy is highly motivated, organized, persistent, can pivot when things aren't going his way, has some basic fitness, decent archery skills under pressure, basic understanding of elk habits and habitat, has reliable camping gear, done the e-scouting, has enough time, and accepts that elk hunting is hard and keeps grinding to the end I'd bump those odds to 10-15%. Sounds like hoosierhunter11 is a quick study. Congrats on your first elk on your first trip you're way ahead of the game, brother!

 

[Npike4040]

3 elk in 4 trips so far and should of had a nice bull on the unsuccessful trip. In my experience its not nearly as hard as everyone makes it out to be. I treat my elk hunts as high pressure public land whitetails and have been pretty successful so far. Get away from people, get the wind right, think outside the box, dont park where everyone else parks. Easy to kill but hard to find.

 

[ScreamingPotato]

The answer is it depends on them. Are they like you and stubborn enough to keep at it, or are they like most people and make excuses and putz around on the roads?

 

[farmermail]

Main difference between a newbie and experienced elk archer is how many times the wind has pissed you off. Just tell them to go, get experience.

 

[ElDiablito]

Anyways, based on your experience, what kind of odds at success do you give folks with minimal experience hunting in the mountains to actually get a bull on their first hunt or hunt/s?

Statistically? Close to zero. But not going and trying - your odds are literally zero.

 

[Geewhiz]

3 elk in 4 trips so far and should of had a nice bull on the unsuccessful trip. In my experience its not nearly as hard as everyone makes it out to be. I treat my elk hunts as high pressure public land whitetails and have been pretty successful so far. Get away from people, get the wind right, think outside the box, dont park where everyone else parks. Easy to kill but hard to find.

Sounds like you’ve gotten lucky and you’ve convinced yourself it’s because you’re all that.

 

[Npike4040]

Sounds like you’ve gotten lucky and you’ve convinced yourself it’s because you’re all that.

I'm defintely not all that. But i do put in hundreds of hours escouting and a couple trips a year going to my units putting my boots to use. The op asked a question and that has been my experience starting out elk hunting. Not everyone struggles for their first 5 years. Sure you got to have some luck to kill an elk but it doesnt mean i'm going in blind just hoping for a retarded elk to walk up to me. Put in the work and be persistant and my luck seems to change for the better.

 

[JMasson]

Sounds like you’ve gotten lucky and you’ve convinced yourself it’s because you’re all that.

Sounds more like he’s dedicated and persistent. Success happens when luck, time (or persistence, dedication or whatever you want to call it) and opportunity intersect.

 

[Beendare]

I was fortunate to tag a bull on my first elk hunt this past Sep in a low point unit in CO thanks to being hard headed, stubborn, and not willing to give up. ...... Fortunate to be able to capitalize on it on day 8!

Odds wise, you upped your odds by spending the time in there.

Other things that up the odds;
Knowing your area and how the elk use it.
Factoring in hunt pressure in how the elk use the area.
Covering a lot of ground to find where the elk are
Conditioning; Being able to keep covering ground in high elevation and rough terrain-
Patience; so much down time
Slow the F down


The odds for the avg hunter are published by the states....and IMO they are pretty accurate for a newbie hunter.

FWIW, I scouted my- new to me unit- and it still took me 7 days to kill a branch antlered dink bull in a general unit. I could have shot spikes on all but 2 days.

The edited videos on Youtube of guys killing elk do not tell the story with elk hunting. Many of those vids are on limited entry units- night and day different from a general or OTC unit.

Plus, those videos have edited out the days and down time with nothing- Zero.....and IME it's a significant amount of time. Even when you see elk going to bed in a patch of timber....many times it's an all day affair to wait for them to come out. We step into the woods from lives that are moving fast.....and it's hard for some to change gears and slow way down.

 

[Ucsdryder]

Flat lander from Indiana here. I was having a conversation with my hunting buddies last weekend about newbie odds on the first (or first couple) DIY archery elk hunt. A lot of my buddies talk about going but between running businesses, having young families, money, etc. they are putting it off. No different than any other reason people put things off. Another culprit is the stories they hear about guys going and not even seeing or hearing elk.

I was fortunate to tag a bull on my first elk hunt this past Sep in a low point unit in CO thanks to being hard headed, stubborn, and not willing to give up. That experience completely changed my outlook on the outdoors and what I want to accomplish and dedicate my hobby time to. I am trying to encourage them to buy a dang tag and go, heck maybe take one or two of them in the next couple of years.

Anyways, based on your experience, what kind of odds at success do you give folks with minimal experience hunting in the mountains to actually get a bull on their first hunt or hunt/s?

Not tooting my own horn, I know I got pretty lucky and was in the right place at right time. Fortunate to be able to capitalize on it on day 8!

You killed on day 8. How many “almost” did you have in the previous 8 days? Almost = elk in range but behind a tree, missed shot, etc? That might help answer your question.

 

[Indian Summer]

Based on my experience and the fact that Colorado licenses are all going to a draw like every other state my advice would be to start buying points in Wyoming. There’s a very good chance you’ll start looking in that direction direction eventually anyway. There are Colorado residents who have been looking in that direction for years.

Don’t waste time and money learning areas that you won’t be able to hunt for years to come. Every day of every hunt out there should be an investment in future hunts. Elk is more of a long-term venture than deer hunting is.

There is no question you were extremely lucky. But you also contributed to your luck with persistence. Numbers don’t lie. If you want to know, archery success rates just go to the fish and game pages. Rates during archery season are in the single digits to teens in good areas. There are absolutely guys who kill elk during archery and rifle every year. There are many reasons for that. Lots of times they are residents of the state hunt. But make no mistake, if an area has a success rate of 25% that means that for every 100 guys that marches up the mountain 75 of them will come back empty-handed. Even once with experience.

Killing your first bull will be a contributing factor to future success. You will hunt every day with confidence knowing that at any minute you could be looking down on your dead elk. Sometimes it’s hard to feel that way until it has actually happened. So congratulations for that. Now to become consistent. To change your reasons for success from luck to skill, experience, and knowledge of your area. Best of luck to you and your partners. Just get them out there and they will be hooked. As long as they are cut out for it that is. It’s not for everyone.

 

[Skerhunter]

With the right skill set or hunting with experienced people 50%+, but for others 0-1%. Most people I run into archery ek hunting have no idea what they are doing, no matter how many years they have been doing it.

Luck has a lot to do with it. Anyone can get ran over by a herd in the middle of the rut just randomly walking around or sitting in some dark timber, but that won’t lead to consistent success and that’s the 1% chance.

I have hunted with 4 first time elk hunters out west that have filled their tags. Out of those guys only one of them stands a good chance of consistently killing elk in the future. The others lack too many skills. I doubt one of them ever goes again because it was so physically difficult for them.

 

[ElDiablito]

Here’s some Colorado numbers.

In 2023, CPW estimates that over 50,000 archery elk hunters (over the counter and limited draw) spent over 359,000 days afield. They took 3,749 bulls and 1,295 cows/calves for a total success rate of 10 % (close to 7% success on bulls).

2023-Statewide-Elk-Hunting-Harvest-Estimates.pdf

cpw.widen.net

 

[Gerbdog]

Elk huntings easy, mountains are small, theyre massive animals.... cant miss with a bow..... big dumb animals, just drive your side by side up to the bull, put an arrow in it, drive home

.......

If that doesnt get your buddies elk hunting probably no hope i reckon

 

[jchamwv]

Next September will be my 5th try. So far 0% success. I still wouldn't miss it for anything.