Peninsula weather is notorious. A bear passed on day one has no guarantee to ever be seen again. Also a raffle tag doesn't always carry the same "weight" as a fully paid for hunt..... just saying some guides/outfitters look at the hunt differently depending on why they "donated" the hunt in the first place.
Pay a great tip, let the guide know you are serious and grateful etc. It's not unheard of to not get a bear depending on weather etc. Brown bear hunting to me isn't that "fun" lots of glassing and sitting in bad weather

but killing a good one is definitely an adrenalin rush.
I would shoot what the guide tells you to - whether that is day 1 (everyone will be happy to get a break early) or if they never tell you to pull the trigger.....