Am I Throwing Away $150 Per Year On Wyoming Sheep?

[Molon Labe]

I have drawn a WY random moose tag, an AZ NR sheep tag, and a WY mountain goat tag. Killed fine animals on each hunt and gained lifetime memories.

I’m sure glad I let my “dream” side win out over my “analytical” side.

cbeard64-you may have misinterpreted my tone...I am not trying to be "all high and mighty" or calling anyone stupid for choosing differently than me. What I am trying to do it hand out information that has taken me years and years and hundreds of hours to figure out. That is the purpose of this forum.

I try to help out as much as possible. I'm spending half hour here half hour there trying to be helpful on an online forum. It takes time to put together posts. I bet I was a lurker on Rokslide for 3-5yrs before I finally signed up. I feel like its important for me to give back in small areas where I can help out...as a payback for all the information I have been gleaning over the years. I'm not calling people out...calling people liars or stupid etc. I don't feel like that is time well spent.

Drawing tags has nothing to do with dreaming and everything to do with researching and planning. We only have current data to work with...we are unsure what the future holds with these states. So hoping, guessing and dreaming that things will get better in the future is just that a guess...See Trial153 post as to what WY is doing...

I've drawn 4 tags in the past 4 years that have less than 2% of drawing (including two sheep tags)...I get the "if you don't apply you cant draw" mentality. I just approach my tag application season with a very rational process. I make applications in 15 states and put in anywhere from 50-65 applications/year. I spend way too much time on my process...but I enjoy it thoroughly.

All my posts and calculations were for the OP and all the lurkers to use to make informed decisions.

I apply for 12 different sheep tags a year. Out of all those other applications the "perceived value" of the tags are all much less than WY. Once again take the cost of applying (license cost divided by number of species and per species cost) and divide it by the odds of drawing the tag. In theory (based off current numbers and costs) this gives you how much that tag would cost...perceived value.

I also purchase tickets in several state raffles...that have reasonable perceived values. Takes some digging and calling for a couple states but you can get draw odds on most of the state raffles. There are a couple states raffles that have better value than the WY bighorn draw. Or once again you can just go to a roulette wheel to give you a better expected outcome than applying into the WY bighorn draw...

So if the OP is sending in applications to several other states...and WY is last on the list of where money is spent. And you just want your name in the hat...even though WY is the most "expensive" tag to apply for. Then yes of course apply to WY because it is another chance to draw a tag. But if you are not applying for the 12 tags that are a better perceived value before WY you are not giving yourself the best chance to have a sheep tag in your pocket.

Buzz is !00% correct...if you have 19pts stay in the game...even if they change the rules you will still pull a tag in 10-20yrs. But hoping that they will increase numbers to NR and keep costs level...and people are going to drop out...and people are going to die off...or forget to apply. Well...that is just a ton of variables to consider when you are sitting at 9pts with 4200 people ahead of you.

 

[BeaverHunter]

Wyoming SF0094 | 2020 | Budget Session

Bill Text (2020-02-12) Hunting licenses-resident and nonresident. [Failed Introduction 1-28-1-0-0]

legiscan.com

Wonder if that has a chance of passing. That would make a sheep tag even harder to come by for non residents. What’s up with the outfitter pool of tags? Would that just apply to deer, elk and antelope only? Either way, I don’t think this would help my draw odds as a non resident. Maybe down the road when I move to Wyoming it would.

 

[Molon Labe]

Wonder if that has a chance of passing. That would make a sheep tag even harder to come by for non residents. What’s up with the outfitter pool of tags? Would that just apply to deer, elk and antelope only? Either way, I don’t think this would help my draw odds as a non resident. Maybe down the road when I move to Wyoming it would.

Looks to me like they are setting that 30% aside to have something similar to how New Mexico works...probably have better draw odds in the outfitter pool...

And yes that has a chance of passing...its legislation that has been proposed.
Even if it doesn't pass...it is scary that they would consider that stuff...and they would probably just keep trying until some version of it passes.

 

[Quin]

Wyoming SF0094 | 2020 | Budget Session

Bill Text (2020-02-12) Hunting licenses-resident and nonresident. [Failed Introduction 1-28-1-0-0]

legiscan.com

Interesting... especially the outfitter tags part... Is there actually enough demand for guided hunts to fill 30% of the deer and antelope licenses?

The commission shall adopt rules necessary to implement a process to issue licenses to nonresident hunters who are hunting with a licensed outfitter as provided in this subsection.
I'm not fluent in legalese so does this mean that a system outside the regular draw system will be created?

 

[Trial153]

The outfitter mafia is strong in WY....

 

[BeaverHunter]

Looks to me like they are setting that 30% aside to have something similar to how New Mexico works...probably have better draw odds in the outfitter pool...

And yes that has a chance of passing...its legislation that has been proposed.
Even if it doesn't pass...it is scary that they would consider that stuff...and they would probably just keep trying until some version of it passes.

Yea makes me want to move to Wyoming even sooner. Might be about the only way to draw a Sheep tag soon in Wyoming

 

[BeaverHunter]

The outfitter mafia is strong in WY....

I was thinking the exact same thing. I wonder what @BuzzH thinks about this. He seems to have a pretty good read on the feelings toward outfitters by locals in Wyoming.

 

[horniac]

If my interpretation of the proposed bill is correct they are getting rid of the NR special draw and setting aside 30% of the total NR tag allocation for outfitters similar to what NM does effective 2022.

Then, to offset the loss of revenue from the special draw tags they are proposing to increase the tag fees across the board for all NR big game tags by approximately 15% to 48%. For example, the NR sheep tag will increase from $2,318 to $3,000. Still definitely worth the coin if you can draw the sheep tag though!

https://www.wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2020/SF0094

 

[NYyotekiller]

Wyoming SF0094 | 2020 | Budget Session

Bill Text (2020-02-12) Hunting licenses-resident and nonresident. [Failed Introduction 1-28-1-0-0]

legiscan.com

More of the same with all these states raising the fees just because they can.

Non-resident Elk going from $690 to $800 is quite a jump but it’s to be expected I guess.....all the cool kids are raising their prices so might as well everyone jump on the bandwagon.

 

[BuzzH]

I was thinking the exact same thing. I wonder what @BuzzH thinks about this. He seems to have a pretty good read on the feelings toward outfitters by locals in Wyoming.

I don't think it has a chance at all of passing. If I believe what the outfitters told us at a roundtable meeting a few weeks ago, they'll be opposing it as well.

 

[BeaverHunter]

I don't think it has a chance at all of passing. If I believe what the outfitters told us at a roundtable meeting a few weeks ago, they'll be opposing it as well.

That’s surprising about the outfitters being against it. Did they say why they would oppose it?

 

[Trial153]

By lowering the cap there will be some tags that will not make it to the NR pool that most likely now are getting funneled to outfitters, especially sheep tags if this change applies to sheep as well.
the outfitter association are greedy bastards, though not Necessarily stupid. I’m sure they are running the numbers and they are seeing outfitters pool tag numbers for Nonresidents isn’t enough to offset the total number of tags reduced. In word.....they do better under the current cap and quota.
my worry is if they can somehow twist this to a more favorable position that will hurt even more....after all a 90/10 split is just to simple.

 

[Jimss]

You can bet that the human population in Wyo is going to continue to rise the next 20 years. It will become tougher and tougher for Wyo residents to draw high demand tags. It's just a hunch but with tags becoming tougher for Wyo residents to draw the % of tags issued to nonres will likely drop in the next 20 years.

Some of the predictions on this post is that more and more nonres will drop out of the application game improving the odds for those with less than max pref pts. There hasn't been much consideration that fewer tags will be issued to nonres in the coming years. This would happen if 1) a higher % of tags are issued to Wyo res and 2) if sheep and moose populations continue to drop.

The only way that more tags will be issued to both res and nonres is if there is a boom in sheep and moose population. Unfortunately, the trend in the Wyo sheep and moose population is downward. It would be fantastic if these populations increase...but will this ever happen? Disease, predators, poor range condition, loss of winter range, etc are pretty darn important!

 

[Steve O]

I don't think it has a chance at all of passing. If I believe what the outfitters told us at a roundtable meeting a few weeks ago, they'll be opposing it as well.

Mia there anything a non resident with a lot invested in the Wyoming points scheme can do to help in opposing this bill?

 

[wyosteve]

Yes, you can find out which legislative committee is handling the bill and which individual legislators are on the committee. You then should be able to email (lobby) them with your comments/suggestions. How much value they will place on those comments/suggestions is unknown. Also, since this is a budget session, it takes a 2/3 majority vote in the house of origin (Senate or House) to even introduce a bill, so it's not guaranteed it will even get to a committee.

 

[PONYBOY]

Odds aren't in your favor for sure, but that seems to be the game unless you buy a hunt up North.... I was one of the lucky 4 last year and drew a random tag as a non resident. Killed a great Ram... Gotta get on the field if you want to have a chance, not matter how low the odds are. Good luck, I hope you draw this year.

 

[wytx]

Your wy hunt will be guided as most sheep are in wilderness areas

Not true.

 

[TWHrunner]

Sounds like it’s way past time to bail on a 10 point dream. Apparently it can’t happen in this lifetime. I should have paid closer attention it seems.

 

[ALF]

Bumping this one up.....

I have 13 sheep points in Wyoming, and have decided to throw in the towel.

I'll be 67 next month, and the gambling odds just aren't in my favor.

I have more Montana points, so I think I'll throw all my eggs in that basket.

 

[wapitibob]

It costs ~ $75/year to apply for Sheep in WY. Not a bad raffle ticket.