All Time High Stock Market

[aftriathlete]

You’re kidding right? No one besides the forward swaps market, economists, anyone who can read a jobs or inflation report, saw this coming

It was gonna happen. The only question was how soon.

Also, you made my point — yes rates would have to come down eventually, but the big question was how soon. And no one expected this massive pivot right now, less than two weeks after Powell was basically 180 out on rate hikes and cuts, and those two weeks were filled with economic data that did not support this kind of pivot.

 

[def90]

I paid 8.25% when I bought my house in 2000. Amazing how many folks forget (or never knew) that interest rates used to be considerably higher than they are now.

Houses were also considerably cheaper back then.

 

[eamyrick]

Houses were also considerably cheaper back then.

This is the struggle. Just ran my house through an inflation calculator. Bought in 2015. The current value is double what the inflated price should be. Additionally, add 3-4 points to the interest rate. I don’t know how people do it. My industry has seen maybe 10 percent raise in that time period.

 

[Jmort1754]

So do we think this was the fed capitulating to the incumbents and starting a boom year for 2024 so everyone forgets the shit years before?

 

[Hnthrdr]

So do we think this was the fed capitulating to the incumbents and starting a boom year for 2024 so everyone forgets the shit years before?

Precisely…

 

[49ereric]

I do not understand the economy. Or stocks. Or currency. Not even a little. I also have this mental block when someone tries to explain it to me, they always seem like they're full of sh*t.

I always say I don’t have the education is comprehend the economy and most people don’t but have opinions.

 

[Broomd]

So do we think this was the fed capitulating to the incumbents and starting a boom year for 2024 so everyone forgets the shit years before?

Of course it is.

And what everyone forgets is that there has been ZERO growth for mutual funds and retirement accts for the last three years. It's been a bottomless abyss until just lately when they finally got back up to 'Orange Man Bad' levels.
This last admin has been a shitshow of morons and ineptitude.

 

[Jmort1754]

Of course it is.

And what everyone forgets is that there has been ZERO growth for mutual funds and retirement accts for the last three years. It's been a bottomless abyss until just lately when they finally got back up to 'Orange Man Bad' levels.
This last admin has been a shitshow of morons and ineptitude.

Exactly but its at an all time high.

 

[Rich M]

Houses were also considerably cheaper back then.

That's the problem.

"They" lowered the interest rates and instead of keeping the values at $x$, "the market" raised em. So basically, you bought a house based off what you could afford monthly as opposed to what the REAL value of the house is.

So now, we have an inflated market and a bunch of over-priced houses that are not really worth what folks paid for them. A house's value does change between 3% and 12% interest rates - the $1,000-$2,000/month only buys $x$ house at diff interest rates.

So, as the interest rates go up, the house values must/should correspondingly come down. Keeping on the what you can afford monthly as a scale. It's all flubbed up. Similar stuff happened during Jimmy Carter and the high interest rates, 12-13% mortgages were not unheard of at the time. So house values went down if someone wanted to sell.

Not sure how this is gonna recover and become normal again.

 

[2531usmc]

This is the struggle. Just ran my house through an inflation calculator. Bought in 2015. The current value is double what the inflated price should be. Additionally, add 3-4 points to the interest rate. I don’t know how people do it. My industry has seen maybe 10 percent raise in that time period.

Yes, but eventually housing prices will revert to the mean. This will destroy the lives of many Americans.

the price of everything (housing, stocks, food) is being goosed higher by central banks in service to their political masters

 

[MallardSX2]

I believe that the housing market, housing interest, and prices have been inflated for increased local property tax revenue stream nationwide. When the price of houses doubled across the US, property tax auditors were visiting and re-evaluating every house they could. My own property taxes went up about 40% in the last 3 years. When the govt overspends, the taxes go up.

Who is controlling these idiots? 33 trillion in debt. We are all in a train heading down he tracks for the bridge that is out and they (politicians) are ALL screaming MORE COAL!!!!! MORE COAL!!!!!

Democrats, Republicans, the whole bunch of them are crooked as hell. Seriously, how do we trust someone (aka the govt) who is in charge of giving themselves raises? Isn't this why we (our ancestors) came to America and fought for our independence? Taxation without representation.

They are increasing taxes on us not on a federal level or state sales tax level so much but hitting us where nobody "really" notices.....and that is in property taxes. Thats how they get the equality they so desire. Values of homes are being inflated and we are being re-evaluated and backdoor fleeced via property taxes. If it goes the other way do you think that our homes will be re-evaluated and our taxes will go down? Me things not.

Everyone pays federal and local sales tax. Thats a level playing field. But, not everyone can afford to buy a house.....see??? It's like the ad-valorem tax in Georgia. Read about that shit some time. If you want to have any kind of toys, that's fine, but they will tax you to death for owning it, the entire time you own it..

Sure, my 401K is higher than ever. You can look at it like that, but back in reality land I am just reaching a break-even point that should have occurred YEARS ago. I have been dollar cost averaging along the way, but I know a lot of people who reduced their 401k's just to keep their nose above the waterline. That was a mistake for sure....

We are on a pivotal moment in US history that will show just how little people care about other people. It's VERY obvious that the govt doesn't care about us. They have run us 33 trillion into debt. lol

You know it's bad when people are charging rent that is higher than monthly mortgage payments. This shows the true nature of the human spirit. I get it, it's a capitalist market but people and the govt will take until there is not more to take from people. No wonder there is such a big push for wealth equality and socialism from the poor. I don't blame them.

I talked to a guy (who has lots of money) yesterday who buys land in different states just so he can get landowner tags from the state. Then he sells those tags at a premium and makes enough money from those landowner tags to pay for the property loan and then some in his pocket. Tell me that isn't screwed up...

My advice, if you own a house, don't sell it and hold tight. This is going to get real.

Things are weird right now and I don't trust ANYONE in the govt to pull us out of this one. We need to shut the govt down, freeze ALL spending, and start over.

This is a terrible time to start out in life. I am glad I was about 10 years ahead of this giant mess and my affairs are in order.

I'm all over the place with this one. I digress.

 

[MallardSX2]

Yes, but eventually housing prices will revert to the mean. This will destroy the lives of many Americans.

the price of everything (housing, stocks, food) is being goosed higher by central banks in service to their political masters

I truly 100% disagree.

I believe that Housing prices will NEVER come down.

 

[Turkeytider]

So do we think this was the fed capitulating to the incumbents and starting a boom year for 2024 so everyone forgets the shit years before?

Absolutely. Bidenomics all the way!!!

 

[downthepipe]

Of course it is.

And what everyone forgets is that there has been ZERO growth for mutual funds and retirement accts for the last three years. It's been a bottomless abyss until just lately when they finally got back up to 'Orange Man Bad' levels.
This last admin has been a shitshow of morons and ineptitude.

A simple google search shows the The Dow was around 28,000 when Biden was elected. It’s 37,000 now. So your accounts not moving are a concern.

 

[go_deep]

Many European countries have a 50 and even a 60 year mortgage, Japan even has a 100 year mortgage. 50 year mortgage, coming to a neighbor near you who's trying to keep up with the Joneses.

 

[2531usmc]

I truly 100% disagree.

I believe that Housing prices will NEVER come down.

It has to because it’s all built on a mountain of debt. Consumer & household debt, student loan debt, indebted state govts, and a federal government spending like there are no constraints.

its a ponzi scheme and like all ponzu scheme, it will fall apart one fine day

 

[Dust Rider]

I truly 100% disagree.

I believe that Housing prices will NEVER come down.

I live in a fast growing area and for the last 40 years the housing prices never have come down.

 

[go_deep]

It has to because it’s all built on a mountain of debt. Consumer & household debt, student loan debt, indebted state govts, and a federal government spending like there are no constraints.

its a ponzi scheme and like all ponzu scheme, it will fall apart one fine day

Post #55, 50 year mortgage. Roll all that debt up and put it into one nice little package and service it for the rest of your life... It will happen, people are stupid, once a few go that way, the lemmings will follow.

 

[GMax]

We will continue to ride the high until just after the 2024 elections where we will see a crash. It will either be all a republicans fault or just the way an economy works.

Yep. The big liberal institutions using their clients money to try and make FJB look good. Its how Crony Capitalism (Communism) works.

 

[ben h]

Many European countries have a 50 and even a 60 year mortgage, Japan even has a 100 year mortgage. 50 year mortgage, coming to a neighbor near you who's trying to keep up with the Joneses.

I don't think these longer term mortgages are all that much different than the 30 year. They're all very long term and the "owner" will probably never fully repay the debt. More than likely they'll service the debt while they live there and pay it off when they refinance or sell and move someplace else...and the cycle repeats itself. Extending the term from 30 to 40+ years does reduce the monthly payment, but not by as much as you'd think even with the rate remaining the same, but in reality the longer terms are usually accompanied by a higher rate that make the difference even smaller.

If you want to "own" your property, I'd suggest keeping the mortgage term to more like 15 years, which admittadly is tough to do with the combination of RE prices, rates and incomes.