2021 Colorado odds vs 2022 odds

[Forkieslayer]

I will be trying to draw my first Colorado hunt this year. I have 2 points and the unit I’m looking at was 100% draw odds in 2021 with 2 points in 2nd season and 3rd season, but was in 10%-20% with 1 point in 2nd and 3rd season. I know it could possibly sky rocket this year and there is no way to tell. Everyone said units would go up 2-6 points in 2021 because of the late season dates but this unit only saw a small jump in 2021. Anyone willing to give me their two cents? Thanks

 

[LONE HUNTER]

No one has a crystal ball. A bunch of dudes with lots of points are still in the pool. Apply for what you want to and think you can draw and let the chips fall.

 

[5MilesBack]

Just look at how many people applied last year with 1 point that didn't draw versus how many tags are available this year. That's about all the "given" information that we have. Wildcards are always the guys that didn't apply for that unit last year but may this year (so they aren't even in those stats), and then the guys dumping points (those with more than what's needed to draw in past years). You can get a feel for those numbers as well from the stats, but each year is different and unknown until we see the stats for this year after the draw. I don't follow deer much, but we've seen the stats showing a lot of guys dumping points for elk tags, because they realize it's going to be years before they "might" even have a chance at drawing something better. Or......they see the handwriting on the wall with wolves, so want to get at least some sort of decent tag before they really take hold.

 

[southLA]

Who knows. This year could be just as wild as last.

 

[OneShot]

I bet if you apply, you’ll draw. A lot of the premium sought after units saw some big point jumps, while most 0-3 point hunts didn’t change much.

 

[Bull_n_heat]

I bet if you apply, you’ll draw. A lot of the premium sought after units saw some big point jumps, while most 0-3 point hunts didn’t change much.

I agree here. If you're dead set on third season tags, they seem more volatile. I think 2 or 3 points puts you in the drivers seat for most 2nd season hunts.

 

[Cahunter805]

I sure hope you guys are right. Eyeing a few units and looking at last years applications and making a guess to which unit we could draw requires a crystal ball for sure.

 

[sndmn11]

Should be in the mix, I can't imagine it would bypass 2 points.

 

[LONE HUNTER]

I'm curious to see how the hunts are this year. A taxidermist in Gunnison was saying he saw more big bucks come through last year than in the 3 years prior combined.

 

[Fogalo]

I'm curious to see how the hunts are this year. A taxidermist in Gunnison was saying he saw more big bucks come through last year than in the 3 years prior combined.

Seriously? Everyone I talked while hunting said it was one of the worst years ever with hot weather and doe tags.

 

[Blackcats06]

Look at 2019 and 2020 draw odds to see if the unit had an increase in 2021 or if it is is following the normal pace of point creep. Don't ever look at just one year in trying to determine what point creep will do this year.

 

[LONE HUNTER]

Seriously? Everyone I talked while hunting said it was one of the worst years ever with hot weather and doe tags.

Shane Guerrieri of Gunnison Colorado. Give him a call and talk to him about it if you are doubting.

 

[Fogalo]

Shane Guerrieri of Gunnison Colorado. Give him a call and talk to him about it if you are doubting.

Interesting - I talked to a few dozen guys and know a couple guides who all said it sucked. All in total we had five 2nd season and one 3rd season tag only one got filled. I’m glad to hear somebody got something.

 

[street]

I expect it will be similar to last year, maybe a slight pull back. TIFWIW

 

[ColoradoV]

I spent some time in a few Gunnison units during rifle this year - been a minute or the last time I was there was 2016 and fair to say there is a night and day difference from then to now in quality..

Shane and the locals are correct as a lot of deer were killed. More smaller bucks killed is what I saw - lots of folks were filling tags w imo subpar bucks. The local guides I am friends with did quite well….

Unless the season dates change it will get worse before it gets better. We are watching live as Colorado’s deer herd gets decimated and in places like the Gunnison basin cwd has not even been found in 1 deer..

Where point creep will happen the most is when folks figure out that later just might not be better anymore and the locals that scout will have the best chance as after the 2nd “you can’t kill what is not there”..

My father dumped a bunch of points (20) in Eagle county in 2019 we had a great hunt and I am so happy we did not wait.. As guys who have saved up a lot of points will most likely be disappointed in what’s left on Colorado’s landscape - even if they move the dates back to Christmas….