Couple things here that I think could be contributing, the 1x-2x fired brass might not be getting sized down far enough for proper tolerance for your chamber if the chamber it was fired in was slightly larger. It could be hardening and sizing down even less on subsequent firings.
Also, I have...
Skip chrono. Confirm zero at 100 with large sample, true calculator at 800 yards. If 2850 got you impacts last outing, start with that in the calculator.
I understand that. If the mandrel is .003" below bullet diameter it should come out around .004" undersized after spring back.
This is what doesn't make sense, in your initial measurements "after using the mandrel the new brass measures .312 with calipers and .313 with mic". If the neck...
.314 before or after seating a bullet?
I have never lubed a mandrel. Still curious what the mandrel diameter is, and why you had .009" interference based on the dimensions posted earlier, because I'm betting that's what bulged shoulders and wouldn't allow them to chamber.
Not trying to dog on your equipment but Vortex is known for having wandering zero and erector/tracking issues when dialing. Those issues get amplified at longer distance, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was contributing.
You need to verify your other inputs are correct, most people jump to adjusting BC and something like scope height isn't correct. Use the advertised BC from the manufacturer and whatever velocity got your vertical centered up at 800 and start adjusting other inputs until things line up. And as...
Not necessarily, in some cases a small base, collet, or precision die will fix the issue. Opening up the back end of the chamber is doing the same thing as sizing the base of the case down smaller. I think the ADG guys mentioned somewhere around .005" clearance in that area in the S2H podcast...
300 PRC is a lot of recoil to deal with, even with a brake. I wouldn't put a lot of merit into those results from only a couple shots, you might be perceiving it that way but a lot of times velocity variation doesn't translate into POI shift exactly the way the numbers line up. This is why...
This isn't helping either. Sometimes fired brass gets sized enough to function in a different chamber, sometimes if the OG chamber was dimensionally bigger you can have interfering tolerances.
Did you get any testing done on this? I have a 284 Win throated for the 165 TGK avg velocity 2870 with 52.4gr H4350. Curious to see how the numbers stack up.
If using an app and rangefinder and not a true ballistic solver what do you do for angle? Is there a certain angle or distance where it just becomes absolute you need to accurately account for it?
I had this happen to me just a couple years ago with Hodgdon load data, I was still learning and wouldn't exceed book max so I came up with my load and away I went. Later on someone asked about my load being hot and based on their load data, they changed it and I was 2gr over book. There is...
I know I first suggested it when it was brought up in a different thread, so no disservice. I'm just curious if there is some measurable variance there, and if it actually translates into the ES of his load.